Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Insights into the Long Game

Putin Under Pressure: Why A Ukrainian Armistice May Not Be Enough to Save Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been adept at navigating crises both foreign and domestic, but Russia’s three-year war against Ukraine and its domestic fallout are testing his ability to manage Russia’s internal factions like never before. The difference between prior periods of internal unrest and Putin's present challenges lie in the pain felt by ordinary Russians and the multiple sources of pressure weighing on the Kremlin's elite factions, all of which Putin must manage.

Sir James Goldsmith: Populism’s Unlikely Prophet

Sir James Goldsmith was many things: a financier, a corporate raider, a political agitator, and—perhaps most importantly—a thinker ahead of his time. In the 1970s and 1980s, he made a name for himself as a bold and often ruthless investor, orchestrating high-profile takeovers and amassing a fortune in the process. But by the 1990s, Goldsmith had shifted his focus away from wealth accumulation to something he saw as far more consequential: warning of the dangers of globalization and a coming populist revolt.

Columbia’s Student Radicals: 1968 vs. 2024: Will the Protests Matter This Time?

Student radicalism at Columbia University has a storied history going back to 1968, when a massive student uprising shut down the college. Despite the media frenzy connected with today's student radicals, the 2024 protests were smaller and far less disruptive than those of 1968. But given a broader and more committed core of student activists this time, could the longer-term effects potentially be greater?

Endgame: 5 Reasons Iran’s Regime Will Fall in 2025

The Islamic Republic of Iran is nearing its endgame. After 45 years of enforced religious conformity, wars against neighbors, and the sponsoring of international terrorism against Israel and the U.S., the regime founded by Ayatollah Khomeini is on its last legs. Here is the essence of the endgame: 5 reasons Iran's regime will fall in 2025.

Taking Taiwan: Chinese Naval-Blockade Options

From Beijing’s viewpoint, an air/sea blockade has distinct advantages over a direct cross-strait, kinetic invasion. After all, the point is not to obliterate Taiwan, but to fold it neatly into China proper – of course, without its current government.If China can pull off a blockade of Taiwan without drawing a major U.S. economic and military response, it will be a stunning victory, while also shrinking U.S. prestige as protector of the Western Pacific.

Why We Write This Blog, Part Two

Forecasting events used to be something that I did casually - almost like a hobby. But years of being more right than wrong in my predictions convinced me to start this blog with a small group of collaborators. That's its purpose now - to analyse, to predict, and, hopefully, to give people a clearer view of the forces shaping our world. That's why we write this blog.