Recent Posts - Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Devils on Horseback: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 2

Robert Cox April 18, 2026

Sudan showed signs of fissure from the start. Those in the South were afraid of being handed over to people who for years had done little but try to enslave them. As if to confirm their suspicions, only 8 out of 800 government positions during the 1956 independence negotiations were reserved for southerners. If our goal is understanding Sudan’s genocidal civil wars, then the profound disconnect between an Arab, Muslim North and a Christian/Animist and African South can’t be overemphasized.

Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 1

Robert Cox April 11, 2026

As recently as the early 1980s, Sudan seemed to have everything going for it as far as a Third World country was concerned. Its assets included a favorable location for international trade, regional allies, a well-educated elite, and the promise of oil revenue. What went wrong? This three part series: “Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars” is an attempt to explain the causes of Sudan’s present catastrophes.

No Good Options 2: Seizing the Strait Islands – For What End?

Richard Jupa April 6, 2026

This article examines several possible U.S. military objectives in the Strait of Hormuz, including a seizure of Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island and the potential capture of other strategic islands controlling the Strait. Each option carries serious risks, uncertain strategic benefits, and the chance of triggering wider economic and military chaos across the Gulf region. Hence our title, “No Good Options 2”. as we continue last week’s analysis.

No Good Options: Prospects for a U.S. Ground Invasion of Iran

Alexander Stavropoulos March 30, 2026

There are inevitable trade-offs to be considered in every operational plan and in every war. The troubling fact about a potential U.S. invasion of Iran’s coastline is that the trade-offs all seem to skew sharply negative after the initial landing has been achieved. For American military planners, there may truly be no good options for operationalizing a U.S. invasion of Iran.

The Method to Their Madness: Trump, Rubio and America’s Lightning Wars

Ivor Greymantle March 21, 2026

The geostrategic thinking of President Trump’s inner circle revolves around a stark premise: the U.S. is entering a period of geopolitical rivalry that will culminate in a military confrontation with China. Since that confrontation is coming quickly, Washington cannot afford to remain entangled in a half-dozen smaller regional conflicts. Their solution is brutally simple: Before the larger struggle begins, the U.S. should neutralize as many secondary adversaries as possible.

A Clarification to Our Last Post: 10 Reasons Why Iran’s Regime Will Fall

Ivor Greymantle March 11, 2026

We argued in last Saturday’s post that Iran’s Islamic regime faces imminent collapse. Some readers have pushed back — fair enough. Predictions about regime collapse should always be treated with skepticism. But the situation unfolding in Iran right now is unusually bleak for the ruling clerical establishment. The regime is far more fragile than many observers realize. In this post, we outline 10 reasons why Iran’s regime will fall.

Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You: The Endgame for Iran Is Here

Ivor Greymantle March 7, 2026

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched what is now unmistakably a war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The initial wave of airstrikes, cyber operations, and follow-on attacks were not symbolic gestures or calibrated signals meant to restore “deterrence.” They were systematic blows against Iran’s military infrastructure, missile forces, and the remaining skeleton of its nuclear program.

Hollywood Is Still Making Some Good Movies

Hollywood Is Still Making Some Good Films, Or My 2026 Oscar Picks

Gideon Evans March 5, 2026

In an era marked by the supposedly unstoppable decline of Hollywood movies, 2025’s Oscar nominees stand out as a pointed rebuke to the Doomers and cynics. In this post, Gideon Evans surveys the films nominated, examines their many virtues, and forecasts the winners. His big takeaway: Movie despair is overdone – Hollywood is still making some good films.

Letter to Xi: ‘Don’t Do It’

Richard Jupa February 22, 2026

Following his recent high-level purge of the Chinese military, President Xi Jinping is riding high and apparently in full control of the PRC. But the risks of his obsession with reclaiming Taiwan for China are immense. Contributor and naval analyst Richard Jupa makes one last attempt to dissuade the Chinese leader in this ‘Letter to Xi’.

Love and Doom in Westeros

Ivor Greymantle February 21, 2026

Some readers of last weekend’s post complained about its length. To answer those criticisms and better serve our readers, we here revisit the topic of love and doom in Westeros. At just over 1,200 words, it’s a 7-minute read. Enjoy!

The Anti-Romantic: George R.R. Martin’s Tragic Vision of Love

Ivor Greymantle February 14, 2026

Romantic love in Westeros is a dangerous thing — more likely to topple dynasties than to secure happily-ever-after endings. George R.R. Martin, unlike most contemporary authors, seems unusually committed to proving his point. Yet by universalizing the pathological dimensions of eros and marginalizing love’s potential to ennoble, Martin presents a vision that can feel sharply, and often cruelly, limited. Hence the title of this week’s post: The Anti-Romantic: George R.R. Martin’s Tragic Vision of Love’.

Shaping the Mantle: A Direct Appeal to Greymantle Readers

Ivor Greymantle February 7, 2026

Over the past 18 months, Greymantle’s Politics and Culture has grown into something more significant than we originally imagined, thanks to your engagement. As we scope out the next 18 months of our editorial calendar, we’ve been looking closely at the data. We want to know if the numbers tell the same story that you would. Today, we’d like to ask for your help in Shaping the Mantle — so to speak.

Mainstreaming Paranoia: How the Film Industry Feeds the Conspiracism Beast

Ivor Greymantle January 30, 2026

Why do so many Americans believe their government is controlled by hidden cabals? One possible answer: it’s what Hollywood has conditioned them to believe by producing TV shows like Blindspot, Mr. Robot, and The Blacklist. Learn how the unexpected success of The X-Files in the 1990s turbocharged three decades of ‘paranoid entertainment’.

Trump 2.0 One Year In. What Have We Learned?

Ivor Greymantle January 20, 2026

When Greymantle published its Dec. 2024 forecast for Trump 2.0, we sketched three broad trajectories or pathways that Trump 2.0 could take, with Pathway Two being the Orban model. A full year into Donald Trump’s second term as President, the gravitational pull toward Pathway Two – the illiberal consolidation of power through institutional redesign and policy overreach – is unmistakable.

The Monster Mash: ‘Stranger Things’ and the Pleasures of Being Scared Together

Ivor Greymantle January 11, 2026

There is something faintly strange—and genuinely wonderful—about the fact that in a decade as anxious, polarized, and often joyless as the 2020s, a large and culturally diverse audience could rally around a television series so unapologetically steeped in pop-culture excess. Stranger Things is cinematic realization of the 1960s pop ditty ‘The Monster Mash’ — a wild ride through American genre films with monsters as fellow passengers.

Greymantle’s 2026 Forecast: Calculus of Fear

Ivor Greymantle January 4, 2026

Our forecast for 2026 is a gloomy one. We title it ‘Calculus of Fear’ because our baseline view is that the coming year will be defined by the cold calculations of several key actors whose intention will be to intimidate strategic antagonists and domestic opponents alike, rewrite global norms, defy multilateral institutions, and carve the world up into spheres of influence.

2025 Year in Review: Shades of Grey

Ivor Greymantle December 28, 2025

Twelve months ago, Greymantle published a 2025 outlook that attempted to map a world drifting toward instability, illusion, and overconfidence. Some of those calls landed squarely on target. Others missed. A few arrived in that territory analysts prefer not to linger in—the grey zone, where you are directionally right, tactically wrong, and forced to explain yourself. This year-in-review does exactly that.

Del Toro’s Frankenstein, AI and the West’s “Religious Moment”

Ivor Greymantle December 21, 2025

Guillermo del Toro’s film adaptation of ‘Frankenstein’ succeeds by sticking to the original novel’s metaphysical concerns, even as it audaciously revises a number of key plot points. By simultaneously reaching back to the West’s religious past and forward into a future impacted by artificial intelligence, Del Toro manages to be both faithful to – and to transcend – Mary Shelley’s famed horror novel.

The Power Of Pod: The Rise and Rise Of The Podcasting Industry

Gideon Evans December 13, 2025

Podcasting’s emergence as a game-changing new media sector in the mid-2010s has influenced everything from the vast popularity of the ‘true crime’ genre to the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While some analysts believe the podcasting craze has peaked, we think the Age of the Podcast is just getting started.

Why America Stopped Dancing: The Four Critical Forces that Killed Social Ritual

Ivor Greymantle December 5, 2025

Dancing, particularly among young people, has been a dying social form since at least the 1970s. But the slow death of dance in America is not the result of changing musical tastes – though those have also played a role — but a more profound indicator of cultural disintegration. In this week’s post we explore why America stopped dancing: The Four Critical Forces that Killed Social Ritual.

Don’t Quote Me on This, But The 1924 Immigration Act Wasn’t All Bad

Robert Cox November 27, 2025

For a country that takes pride in being a “nation of immigrants,” the United States is surprisingly bad at passing good immigration legislation. The 1924 National Origins Act, which tightened a set of quotas that had been introduced three years earlier, did one thing extremely well, however: it reduced overall immigration dramatically. In that narrow but important sense, the 1924 Immigration Act can be called a success.

All Failures are Failures of the Imagination, Part 3: Failure to Imagine the New American Voter

Ivor Greymantle November 14, 2025

Part 3 of our ongoing series on imaginative failures focuses on Democratic Party leaders and activists in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. general election. We analyze their failure of sympathetic imagination for the American voter, whose characteristics had changed significantly since 2016 and 2020 due to social distrust stemming from the pandemic and online culture.

8 Takeaways from the Democrats ‘Very Good Night’

Ivor Greymantle November 11, 2025

U.S. Democratic Party candidates had what pundits rightly described as ‘a very good night’ on November 4, racking up major electoral victories in NJ, VA, NYC and elsewhere. In this post, we provide a high-level analysis of eight key factors that bolstered Democratic fortunes in the off-year elections including continued cost of living pressures and growing concerns about H.R. 1 linked Medicaid cuts scheduled for January.

The Eagle Versus the Dragon, Part 3: The Chinese Response

Richard Jupa November 7, 2025

In the final article in our 8-part series on the balance of global naval power in the Taiwan Strait, we conclude with an analysis of the Chinese military’s probable responses to a U.S. and allied blockade of Chinese commercial shipping. The bottom line: even if the U.S. attempts to avoid directly engaging PRC naval vessels, Chinese missile power will make the distant blockade a hazardous affair for the U.S. Seventh Fleet.

The Eagle Versus the Dragon, Part 2: The Distant Blockade

Richard Jupa October 29, 2025

Part 7 of our ongoing series of the rise of Chinese naval power lays out the most promising U.S. strategy to counter a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of Taiwan: a distant blockade of Chinese commercial shipping focused on major Pacific and Indian Ocean trade choke points including the Gulf of Aden, the Singapore Straits and the Strait of Malacca. While less hazardous than attempting a direct engagement with the PRC navy, this strategy also carries huge risks for the U.S. navy.

A Vote for Mamdani Is a Vote for Martial Law, Part 2

Ivor Greymantle October 19, 2025

An electoral victory by Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayor’s race is likely to stir an over-the-top policy response by the Trump Administration including, but not limited to, placing the Big Apple under martial law.

A Vote for Mamdani Is a Vote for Martial Law, Part 1

Ivor Greymantle October 15, 2025

We are living through a combustible moment in U.S. history, and the combination of a revolutionary New York City mayor and an authoritarian-leaning U.S. President may prove the most combustible mixture of all. Hence the title of today’s post, “A Vote for Mamdani Is a Vote for Martial Law”.

Dead Man Walking: Vladimir Putin’s September of Setbacks

Ivor Greymantle October 7, 2025

Vladimir Putin once sold himself as the master strategist who rebuilt Russia. In September 2025, the mask slipped. His armies stalled, his economy cracked, NATO didn’t blink, and Donald Trump called him a “paper tiger.” Dead Man Walking; Vladimir Putin’s September of Setbacks traces the month the myth began to die

Iran’s Venezuelan Lifeline: Weapons, Drugs and Intel – Courtesy of Caracas

Ivor Greymantle September 30, 2025

Iran’s June 2025 war with Israel and two years of Israeli dueling with its proxy network have left Iran’s defensive capabilities and internal situation severely compromised. The Iranian regime’s prospects for survival run through Caracas. Venezuela supplies Tehran with drugs-for-cash pipelines, gold swaps, drone hubs, and safehouses for regime members. This post explores why Venezuela is the indispensable backstop for the battered Iranian regime. Hence our title, “Iran’s Venezuelan Lifeline”.

Hamas’s Last Stand? Five Factors Supporting an Israeli Victory in Gaza

Ivor Greymantle September 18, 2025

Hamas clearly miscalculated. Two years into the Gaza War, Israel has fought harder, longer, and wider than Hamas ever imagined. Rockets spent, tunnels exposed, allies struck, and political campaigns abroad failing — Hamas is weaker than at any time in its history. Israel may achieve the one outcome few believed possible: a decisive military victory. But even a crushing battlefield defeat is unlikely to end Hamas as an idea. This week’s post is: “Hamas’s Last Stand? Five Factors Supporting an Israeli Victory’.

The Eagle versus The Dragon, Part 1: China-U.S. Naval Conflict Scenarios

Richard Jupa September 12, 2025

An American military intervention to prevent China from invading Taiwan would be a bloody affair for all nations involved, though the U.S. has more to lose strategically, particularly its storied Seventh Fleet. We examine the relative naval strengths of China and the U.S. and the likely scenarios under which a direct military conflict between the two would unfold in today’s post: “The Eagle versus the Dragon, Part 1”.

Chaos is the Goal: The Minneapolis Church Shooter and the Aims of ‘Esoterrorism’

Ivor Greymantle September 5, 2025

What we witnessed last week in Minneapolis was not an isolated tragedy, nor the random work of a single unhinged individual. The ideology of nihilism, the lure of online fantasy, and the predatory nature of occult-inspired networks like 764 and their predecessors form a toxic ecosystem that breeds violence. We examine this ecosystem in today’s post: “Chaos is the Goal: The Minneapolis Church Shooter and the Aims of Esoterrorism”.

The Dragon versus the Hedgehog: Can China Conquer Taiwan? An Interview with Richard Jupa

Ivor Greymantle August 28, 2025

Recently, Greymantle’s editor-in-chief sat down with contributor Richard Jupa, lead writer of our multipart ‘China-Taiwan’ series, to talk about tensions in the Taiwan Straits and how China might approach taking back the island nation that it regards as a renegade province. A transcript of our interview constitutes this week’s post, which we are calling: “The Dragon versus The Hedgehog”.

Breaking the Wheel of Flesh: Reproductive Technology Takes Aim at the Fertility Crisis

Ivor Greymantle August 24, 2025

Birth rates have been falling across the industrialized world for five generations, but the fertility decline has lately become a true fertility crisis. From France, to Russia, to South Korea to the U.S., cultural fixes and government incentives won’t be enough to turn the tide. In ‘Breaking the Wheel of Flesh’ Greymantle argues that reproductive technologies are the tools to which high income societies will turn —yet these tools remain far from ready to address the crisis on the broad, society-wide scale needed.

The Gaza War Revisited: A Contest of Wills, a Crisis of Humanity

Ivor Greymantle August 13, 2025

The Gaza War remains trapped in strategic limbo, haunted by two unanswerable questions: Can Hamas survive and still claim victory, even if that victory results in the starvation of their own people? Can Israel win and retain a semblance of humanity? In this new post, “The Gaza War Revisited”, Greymantle explores how both sides have become prisoners of their own ideologies—unable to retreat, yet unable to prevail.

Unlearned Lessons: America’s Precarious Post-Pandemic Stance

Ivor Greymantle August 5, 2025

The American public appears to have relegated COVID-19 to the realm of an endemic nuisance rather than an existential threat. Yet the quiet summer surge of 2025 serves as more than a seasonal blip. It is a stark reminder that despite the painful lessons learned during the initial, devastating COVID-19 outbreak, the United States remains unprepared for another pandemic. This week’s post focuses on “Unlearned Lessons: America’s Precarious Post-Pandemic Stance”.

The AI Revolution versus the Chip Revolution: Six Reasons We’re Not Having Fun This Time

Robert Cox July 29, 2025

The AI revolution that began in 2022 is reminiscent of the microchip / personal computer revolution of the late 1970s. A new technology created by Silicon Valley is quickly transforming our lives. But the AI breakthroughs of the 2020s feel fundamentally different from the last tech revolution. The spirit of optimism and democratization of the economy is gone. In their place, the pessimism and mistrust of our own era have infected AI’s swift conquest of corporate and personal life. This week, we focus on “The AI Revolution versus the Chip Revolution”.

Gambling Without Shame: How Legalized Gambling Captured America

Gideon Evans July 23, 2025

American society has become more tolerant of individuals’ personal foibles and failures, in stark contrast to the private and public shaming that was common in the last century. The softening of societal attitudes toward shame has led to some positive developments, but there are areas in life where shame can serve to deter risky behavior. Gambling is one such area. This week’s post highlights the impact of gambling without shame, and how legalized gambling captured America.

They Thought They Owned the Future: Wokism in Eclipse

Ivor Greymantle July 15, 2025

For a stretch of time in the late 2010s and early 2020s, it seemed as though a particular ideological current was not merely ascendant, but had achieved something akin to cultural inevitability.

Its proponents, buoyed by institutional capture and a vocal online presence, carried themselves with the conviction of history’s ultimate victors. Yet even the most seemingly unstoppable force can find its momentum checked. Such is the subject of this week’s post: “They Thought They Owned the Future: Wokism in Eclipse.”

He Saw It Coming: Remembering Philip Rieff, the Prophet of Anti-Culture

Ivor Greymantle July 10, 2025

The West’s cultural landscape has become fragmented – far beyond mere polarization – with the right, left, and center engaged in a profound ongoing conflict. This week’s post delves into the prescient insights of an obscure American sociologist who, almost 60 years ago, accurately predicted many features of our time. Discover his remarkable foresight in “He Saw It Coming: Remembering Philip Rieff, Prophet of Anti-Culture”—a subject far more relevant than you might expect.

Weeks, Not Months: Why the Iranian Regime May Not Survive the Summer

Ivor Greymantle June 30, 2025

The recent Israeli and U.S. military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program have been described in the press as “crippling” and “unprecedented”. But such language misses the real story. These strikes were not an end point. They were a transition from deterrence and into something more volatile, subversive, and potentially regime-breaking. The final phase of the war is beginning. The question is: Can the regime can survive until autumn?

Attacking Taiwan: China’s Land and Sea Invasion Strategy

Richard Jupa June 24, 2025

In the first four articles in this series, we laid the groundwork for understanding China’s grand strategy for subjugating Taiwan. In this fifth article, we lay out China’s likely amphibious invasion strategy, focusing on three distinct scenarios. Greymantle believes China will focus any invasion on Taiwan’s southern port city of Kaohsiung in an attempt to strangle Taiwan’s economy and effectively suffocate it into submission. This will be the essence of China’s land and sea invasion strategy of attacking Taiwan.

America’s Two Multiculturalisms: One Lived, One Imagined

Ivor Greymantle June 15, 2025

America has always been a pluralistic society. From its earliest beginnings as a distinct nation, the country has been shaped by waves of migration, religious dissent, linguistic variety and an uneasy, albeit fruitful, coexistence. And yet, one could be forgiven for thinking that multiculturalism is a recent ideological invention. This is no accident. The word and the concept have become subject to the distortions of America’s political polarization. It’s time to liberate the word from the culture war. Our subject today is America’s two multiculturalisms.

The Sinisterian Impulse: The Infiltration of Occult Aesthetics into Popular Culture

Ivor Greymantle June 9, 2025

Over the past four decades, Satanic aesthetics and occult-infused posturing have crept steadily from the margins of Western subcultures into the mainstream of fashion, music, film, and avant-garde performance.Today, one can see an ornate Baphomet choker in the front row at Paris Fashion Week, or a Luciferian ode embedded in a high-budget pop video.This isn’t just shock for commerce’s sake. Beneath the spectacle lies a sensibility with deeper cultural roots and emerging ideological heft.We have dubbed this phenomenon ‘The Sinisterian Impulse’.

Defending Taiwan: Exploring Taiwanese Military Defenses Against a Chinese Invasion

Richard Jupa May 29, 2025

Chinese mainland forces could probably conquer an unaided Taiwan via a direct, amphibious invasion in one to two months, provided they have sufficient transport ships (currently, they don’t). Taiwan, however, has the ability to exact staggering financial and military costs on China that could make such an invasion unaffordable. In this new article, fourth in a series, we set our focus on exploring Taiwanese military defenses against a Chinese invasion. Read on!

Depart, Satan! What the Surge in Exorcism Movies Says About America

Ivor Greymantle May 25, 2025

In a period marked by rapid technological transformation, social atomization, and the weakening of institutional religion, the exorcism film functions like a dark mirror held up to the viewer’s own unease. Even those who profess no religious belief are susceptible to the primal fear these films awaken—the idea that one’s mind, body, or loved ones could be seized by something invisible, incomprehensible and malevolent. In this post, we shed some light on what the surge in exorcism movies says about America.

Invading Taiwan: Is China’s Amphibious Toolbox Big Enough?

Richard Jupa May 13, 2025

For three decades, China has been busily assembling one of the largest amphibious naval fleets in the world tasked with one overarching mission: invading Taiwan. Construction of this fleet and planning for an invasion – should a blockade fail – are now in advanced stages. But the central question remains: Is China’s amphibious ‘toolbox’ now big enough to do the job?

Understanding Wokism: A Guide for the Perplexed

Ivor Greymantle May 5, 2025

In a society awash with slogans, the term “Wokism” has emerged as one of the slipperier entries in the contemporary political lexicon. For some, it represents an overdue moral awakening to the injustices baked into American life. For others, it signals the rise of a new orthodoxy—cloaked in compassion, fluent in the language of rights and inclusion, but with the instincts of a revolutionary vanguard. The subject of this week’s post is understanding Wokism.

Dark Clouds, Silver Linings: 7 Potential Upsides to Trumpian Policy

Ivor Greymantle April 16, 2025

For America’s liberals and centrists, the return of Donald Trump to the White House has inspired a mix of alarm, exhaustion, and grim resignation. The second Trump administration, like the first, offers a governance style heavy on grievance and light on guardrails. But beneath the chaos, a profound shift is occurring. Conservative populism represents a sharp break from the elite consensus. This post examines seven areas where the “Trumpian policy outlook” may offer unexpected upsides – silver linings among the dark clouds.

You’re Quitting! Nine All-American Ways of Getting Your Workers to Quit

Gideon Evans April 7, 2025

Donald Trump rose to national prominence with the reality TV show ‘The Apprentice’ in which he famously repeated the catchphrase: ‘You’re Fired!’ in each episode. A more apt catchphrase for his second term might be ‘You’re Quitting!’. There are nine all-American ways of getting your workers to quit their jobs ‘voluntarily’, and President Trump and his consigliere, Elon Musk, are clearly using many of them.

Putin Under Pressure: Why An Armistice May Not Be Enough to Save Vladimir Putin

Ivor Greymantle March 30, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been adept at navigating crises both foreign and domestic, but Russia’s three-year war against Ukraine and its domestic fallout are testing his ability to manage Russia’s internal factions like never before. The difference between prior periods of internal unrest and Putin’s present challenges lie in the pain felt by ordinary Russians and the multiple sources of pressure weighing on the Kremlin’s elite factions, all of which Putin must manage.

Sir James Goldsmith: Populism’s Unlikely Prophet

Ivor Greymantle March 18, 2025

Sir James Goldsmith was many things: a financier, a corporate raider, a political agitator, and—perhaps most importantly—a thinker ahead of his time. In the 1970s and 1980s, he made a name for himself as a bold and often ruthless investor, orchestrating high-profile takeovers and amassing a fortune in the process. But by the 1990s, Goldsmith had shifted his focus away from wealth accumulation to something he saw as far more consequential: warning of the dangers of globalization and a coming populist revolt.

Columbia’s Student Radicals, 1968 vs. 2024: Will the Protests Matter This Time?

Robert Cox March 9, 2025

Student radicalism at Columbia University has a storied history going back to 1968, when a massive student uprising shut down the college. Despite the media frenzy connected with today’s student radicals, the 2024 protests were smaller and far less disruptive than those of 1968. But given a broader and more committed core of student activists this time, could the longer-term effects potentially be greater?

Endgame: 5 Reasons Iran’s Regime Will Fall in 2025

Ivor Greymantle February 28, 2025

The Islamic Republic of Iran is nearing its endgame. After 45 years of enforced religious conformity, wars against neighbors, and the sponsoring of international terrorism against Israel and the U.S., the regime founded by Ayatollah Khomeini is on its last legs. Here is the essence of the endgame: 5 reasons Iran’s regime will fall in 2025.

Taking Taiwan: Chinese Naval-Blockade Options

Richard Jupa February 24, 2025

From Beijing’s viewpoint, an air/sea blockade has distinct advantages over a direct cross-strait, kinetic invasion. After all, the point is not to obliterate Taiwan, but to fold it neatly into China proper – of course, without its current government.If China can pull off a blockade of Taiwan without drawing a major U.S. economic and military response, it will be a stunning victory, while also shrinking U.S. prestige as protector of the Western Pacific.

Why We Write This Blog, Part Two

Ivor Greymantle February 14, 2025

Forecasting events used to be something that I did casually – almost like a hobby. But years of being more right than wrong in my predictions convinced me to start this blog with a small group of collaborators. That’s its purpose now – to analyse, to predict, and, hopefully, to give people a clearer view of the forces shaping our world. That’s why we write this blog.

Looking for the Purple People: Prospects for a Successful U.S. Third Party

Ivor Greymantle February 2, 2025

As dissatisfaction with both major parties grows, the same question keeps arising: Could a U.S. third party finally scale up into a viable national force? To succeed, a third party would need to capture about one-quarter of the U.S. electorate across more than half the states. To do that, third parties first need to identify the voter groups ready to defect from the two major parties – they need to go looking for the “purple” people.

Why We Write This Blog, Part 1

Ivor Greymantle January 28, 2025

In today’s post, we veer sharply away from the geopolitical to delve, if ever so briefly, into the deeply personal. Why we write this blog is a tale of a lifelong obsession with forecasts and predictions. Having been eerily correct in foreseeing several critical events, when almost no one else did, convinced us that transforming our forecasting obsession into regular, public exercise was worth a shot.

The Sentimentalist: Joe Biden and Liberalism’s Decline

Ivor Greymantle January 18, 2025

Biden’s political career is a case study in the dangers of reactive sentimentality. From his early years in politics, when his personal animus toward Richard Nixon drove his political decisions, to his handling of the Bork and Thomas confirmation hearings, Biden’s political choices have been driven more by emotion than by reasoned analysis.

2025 Forecast: Resetting the Global Chessboard

Ivor Greymantle January 3, 2025

As we enter 2025, the global landscape is poised for a number of transformative events. The beginning of an economic bubble in the U.S. under the second Trump administration, the likely overthrow of the Iranian regime, and a negotiated armistice to the Russia-Ukraine War are just a few developments with the power to upend global power dynamics. Hence our 2025 Forecast: Resetting the Global Chessboard.

2024 Year-in-Review: Ten Out of Twelve Ain’t Bad

Ivor Greymantle December 29, 2024

At the start of 2024, Greymantle made 12 major predictions for the year. Ten of them turned out to be correct, an 83% success rate. The really interesting outcomes are the two we got wrong: the reelection of Donald Trump, and Bibi Netanyahu’s ability to beat all odds.

No More Mr. Nice Guy: Three Possible Paths for a Second Trump Administration

Ivor Greymantle December 22, 2024

In sketching out the three possible paths the incoming Trump administration could take, we must focus first on the incoming president himself. We believe Trump’s attitude toward the highest office has changed. It’s going to be a case of ‘No More Mr. Nice Guy: three possible paths for a second Trump administration’.

Bibi’s Michael Corleone Moment

Ivor Greymantle December 9, 2024

Despite being under investigation for corruption and leading a government engaged in an existential war for Israel’s survival, Benjamin Netanyahu has never held a stronger hand in his 30-plus years in politics. Israel’s military campaign has featured a relentless series of targeted assassinations, resembling Michael Corleone’s methodical settling of scores in the The Godfather saga. The collapse of Syria’s autocratic government strengthens Bibi’s hand even further. This is truly Bibi’s Michael Corleone moment.

Is China’s Navy Ready for ‘Blue Water’?

Richard Jupa November 20, 2024

For decades, Americans have believed their nation boasts the largest navy on earth and that it dominates the world’s seas. Half of that belief is no longer valid, and the other half may now be debatable. The big question is: Is China’s navy ready for ‘blue water’?

The Seven Reasons Donald Trump Won the 2024 Election

Ivor Greymantle November 16, 2024

Elections are decided not only by the mistakes made by the losing candidate, but by the strategically shrewd decisions made by the winning candidate.

Donald Trump’s advisors made several astute calls that helped to neutralize Trump’s weaknesses as a candidate, but it was Trump’s own resilience, relentlessness, and refusal to back down above all else that cemented his victory.

The Seven Reasons Kamala Harris Lost the 2024 Election

Ivor Greymantle November 11, 2024

The dust of the November 5 election is still settling, but based on what we know, seven reasons stand out for why Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election. A mood of anti-incumbency, a late start to the campaign, and Harris’s failure to connect with voters are the top three.

The Five Reasons Kamala Harris Will Win the 2024 Election

Ivor Greymantle November 4, 2024

Greymantle anticipates that a Harris victory will be supported by five key trends playing out in the swing states: lingering female anger over Roe v. Wade’s overturning, the unreliability of young male voters, Trump’s refusal to triangulate and tone down his rhetoric, and fewer senior citizen supporters than in 2020.

Lord of Illusions: Donald Trump as Master Magician

Ivor Greymantle November 3, 2024

In this fourth and final post covering the four major-party candidates for President and VP in the 2024 U.S. election, we are going to frame Donald Trump’s candidacy in an unusual way: as the performance of a master magician. A magician, in the sense that Trump resembles, more than anything else, an extraordinarily effective stage or ceremonial magician.

The Coach: Tim Walz and the Risks of ‘Common Man Progressivism’

Ivor Greymantle October 21, 2024

Tim Walz has the right background for a national office seeker. He served in the National Guard, was a high school teacher and coach, and is Governor of Minnesota. He also has a down to earth manner of speaking that should be connecting with voters. The question is: Does any of this matter in a toxic political environment? Hence our title – The Coach: Tim Walz and the Risks of ‘Common Man Progressivism’.

How to Lose a Debate with a Populist in Five Easy Steps

Ivor Greymantle October 7, 2024

There is no doubt that Tim Walz lost Tuesday night’s debate against his GOP opponent, J.D. Vance. Walz stumbled badly as the result of not understanding the nature of American populism. The people are fed up with the ‘expert class’ and tired of receiving evasive answers in response to simple and direct questions.

The Climber: J.D. Vance and the Slippery Pole of Social Ascendancy

Ivor Greymantle September 23, 2024

J.D. Vance’s rise from Appalachian poverty to the heights of U.S. politics is a testament to the complexity of his personal journey and the ambition that has characterized his adult life. The calculated moves Vance has made since he left Yale Law School behind reveal a more defining characteristic: a relentless drive to climb the social ladder, at all costs. Hence our title – The Climber: J.D. Vance and the Slippery Pole of Social Ascendancy.

The Contender: Can Kamala Harris Seal the Deal?

Ivor Greymantle September 15, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris and her campaign stand at a dramatic crossroads. Her candidacy represents a dramatic shift in style for the Democratic Party compared to that of outgoing President Joe Biden, offering a bridge to undecided and independent voters, whose support for Biden was wavering.

The key question is: Can Harris secure the necessary support to swing the general election to the Democrats?

2024 Mid-Year Review: Expect More Turbulence Ahead After Early Summer Shocks

Ivor Greymantle August 11, 2024

Through early August, 2024 is behaving true to form. The seismic electoral shifts we had anticipated in January for the EU have occurred right on schedule, and global markets have been volatile. It is the U.S. election, however, that continues to throw off the biggest shocks and upsets, not all of them surprising to this newsletter. Fasten your seatbelts. More turbulence is just ahead.

The Last Hurrah: Why Joe Biden Should be Romping to Victory In the 2024 Election, But Isn’t

Ivor Greymantle July 15, 2024

In a more normal time and a more normal country, Joe Biden would be coasting to reelection despite the fact of his advanced age. But America is no longer a normal country, and Donald Trump possesses critical advantages and Biden key weaknesses that are shifting the momentum of the election inexorably toward a Trump victory.

2024 U.S. Election Update: Thinking…the Unthinkable?

Ivor Greymantle June 11, 2024

President Biden’s popular standing is far weaker than it should be after a mostly good 2023, economically and socially, and a successful first term. The chances of an election loss to Donald Trump have increased, but the situation remains salvageable for the Dems.

Exploring the Ethical Dilemmas of AI-Generated Deepfake Content

Ivor Greymantle May 2, 2024

The recent surge of AI-generated deepfake content has sparked profound ethical debates. This post aims to dissect the intricate web of ethical dilemmas surrounding deepfakes, delving into their potential consequences. To tickle our readers, we will admit at the outset that this post was largely written by an AI.

Not What Sakharov Predicted: The Strange Convergence of the World’s Great Powers

Ivor Greymantle April 28, 2024

In 1968, Soviet dissident and world renowned physicist Andrei Sakharov advocated for a gradual convergence of the US and Soviet economies, and an end to the Cold War. His essay became widely known as the ‘convergence essay’. What has happened in the years that followed is much stranger: a growing convergence of US and Russian political technologies and styles that Sakharov would have found most ominous.

How the Two Party System (Mis)Shapes Reality

Ivor Greymantle March 24, 2024

America’s two party system has distorted social reality for decades, providing a set of binary, zero sum choices that distorts the range of options available to political actors. It’s time to scrap the old two-party system and replace it with a multi-party system.

The Diet of Illusion and the Rule of Fantasy

Ivor Greymantle February 22, 2024

An innate human hunger for fancy and diversion is generating vast quantities of digital entertainment and real-world imitation focused on the the trivial, the strange and the fantastic. From online avatars to cosplay, a diet of illusion marked by consumption of opinion over facts, fantasy over reality-based narratives and images over words provides mental and emotional sustenance for millions of Americans.

What It Will Mean if Nikki Haley, Against All Odds, Wins the GOP Nomination

Ivor Greymantle January 14, 2024

Nikki Haley’s chance of securing the 2024 GOP presidential nomination was always going to be a long shot. If she somehow prevails against all odds, it will be because female voters now hold the balance of power in U.S. elections.

2024 Forecast: It’s Going to Be A Bumpy (And Scary) Ride

Ivor Greymantle January 7, 2024

2024 is going to be a rollercoaster of a year. We predict that Donald Trump will lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election and that China will not invade Taiwan. We’re more confident of the second prediction than the first. It’s going to be a nail-biter. But don’t believe the polls…

2023 Year-in-Review: Slaves to ‘The Grind’

Ivor Greymantle December 29, 2023

On Jan. 1, 2023, this site made five bold predictions for 2023. All five have come to pass. China’s economy has badly underperformed expectations, Donald Trump’s legal woes have not generated major unrest. Read the full article to learn how the last three shook out, and how we were all ‘slaves to the grind’ in 2023.

The Gaza War: An Elemental Contest of Wills

Ivor Greymantle November 30, 2023

The Israeli-Hamas War now entering its seventh week is quickly evolving into human warfare reduced to its most primordial: an elemental contest of wills between two combatants, in which only one can claim victory and the other is likely to perish.

The Darkest Hour is Just Before the Dawn

Ivor Greymantle October 31, 2023

A quarter century of national disasters and global upheaval has both the U.S. and the wider world on edge. The prevailing mood is a kind of fatalism, lately made worse by the Israel-Hamas conflict. It might behoove us to take a step back to acknowledge that not all recent trends have been bad. The forces of darkness (e.g. Putin’s crew, the Iranian regime) have lately suffered some setbacks of their own. It’s way too early for fatalism.

Conservative Dissenters and the New Social Majority

Ivor Greymantle September 30, 2023

The ground has shifted under American social conservatives since 2000, with support for gay marriage and drug legalization rising. Who are they now? And where do they go from here?

American Conservatism is Dead

Ivor Greymantle August 30, 2023

It’s official. American conservatism is as dead as a coffin nail. One of America’s two major political parties now lacks a governing philosophy. What killed conservatism? It wasn’t Donald Trump. It was fear.

Don’t Place Your Bets on ‘Trump 2.0’

Ivor Greymantle July 30, 2023

The Trump phenomenon has never been a rational one. Which is why I believe, all things considered, that Trump will be defeated by a combination of both rational and irrational forces aligned against him.

11 Million Marriage Treaties

Ivor Greymantle June 19, 2023

The rise of mixed-race marriages in the United States since 1980 is epochal in its social implications. Biracial marriages are accelerating the pace of social tolerance and cementing a series of new social alliances.

All Failures Are Failures of the Imagination, Part 2

Ivor Greymantle May 1, 2023

Good evening, dear readers! Greymantle is back at it again after a five-week absence. Once again, let me offer my apologies for the lengthy gap

All Failures Are Failures of the Imagination, Part 1

Ivor Greymantle March 19, 2023

Recent events such as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the Russian military’s continued failure to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut have been leading me to think more broadly about the nature of failure. The strange thing about failure is that it happens to people and organizations who have long track records of success before they fail spectacularly. Greymantle believes these failures have a common cause: a failure of the imagination.

The Great Fictitious Recession of 2023

Ivor Greymantle February 20, 2023

January is typically a slow month, economically-speaking. After the December holidays, consumers tend to retrench, limiting their spending and paying down credit card balances. Car

January 2023 Update: More Breaks in the Clouds

Ivor Greymantle January 30, 2023

Thanks to a mild northern hemisphere winter, natural gas and other fuel prices have dropped significantly, particularly in Europe, and a spike in European social unrest feared by many last autumn has failed to materialize, with the UK being a notable exception.

2023 Look Ahead: Get Ready for ‘The Grind’

Ivor Greymantle January 2, 2023

As befits the first day of a new solar year, and in keeping with our promises made one week ago, Greymantle is providing the following brief ‘look ahead’ to the new year 2023.The bottom line for the coming year: don’t expect as much upheaval as occurred in 2022, but more a steady drip of less history-making events.

Devils on Horseback: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 2

Robert Cox

Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 1

Robert Cox

No Good Options 2: Seizing the Strait Islands – For What End?

Richard Jupa

No Good Options: Prospects for a U.S. Ground Invasion of Iran

Alexander Stavropoulos

The Method to Their Madness: Trump, Rubio and America’s Lightning Wars

Ivor Greymantle

A Clarification to Our Last Post: 10 Reasons Why Iran’s Regime Will Fall

Ivor Greymantle

Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You: The Endgame for Iran Is Here

Ivor Greymantle

Hollywood Is Still Making Some Good Films, Or My 2026 Oscar Picks

Gideon Evans

Letter to Xi: ‘Don’t Do It’

Richard Jupa

Love and Doom in Westeros

Ivor Greymantle

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