Fool of the Hour

There are times when “yesterday’s news” warrants special comment. Today’s post concerns yesterday’s news, but only in the sense that the incidents in question occurred 10 days ago. In terms of their relevance, the statements that I’m going to discuss here – very briefly – will be relevant for months or years to come.

Even by the shockingly low standards of America’s elected leaders, particularly at the federal level, a series of statements made on March 3 by one of America’s senior senators deserves special mention for its utter recklessness and lack of common sense.

On March 3, Lindsey Graham, the senior senator representing South Carolina in the U.S. Senate, sent out the following tweet:

“Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military? The only way this ends is for somebody in Russia to take this guy out. You would be doing your country — and the world — a great service.”

Senator Graham preceded this missive with a similarly-themed tweet that combined encouragement for an uprising by ordinary Russians with the threat of impoverishment if they don’t comply:

“The only people who can fix this are the Russian people. Easy to say. Hard to do. Unless you want to live in darkness for the rest of your life, be isolated from the world in abject poverty…you need to step up to the plate.”

These words may amount to the single dumbest public statement in all of human history, given the context.

JABBING A CORNERED BEAR

So, here the U.S. and its allies are, one more escalation away from plunging into all-out nuclear war with the Russians. Our diplomats and allies are scrambling to find a face-saving off-ramp that will allow the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine without further bloodshed. Nuclear forces worldwide are in a state of high alert.

Who are we negotiating with? Who is the ultimate decision-maker, who both started the war and can still choose to pull back his troops? Well, it’s Vladimir Putin, of course.

And, in the midst of this nail-biting mayhem, when Putin has his back to the wall and is at his most paranoid (which is really saying something)…a senior U.S. senator publicly encourages members of the Russian military to stage a coup d’etat…via his Twitter feed.

Hmm. Some strategy! How hard did you think about that one, Lindsey?

THE BOY WHO CRIED COUP D’ETAT

Of all the manifold evils associated with social media, perhaps worst is the way social media encourages its users to vent there most ill-formed thoughts in an ostensibly consequence-free environment. But there are real consequences to public statements. As the old World War II adage went, “Loose lips sink ships.”

The meaning to this adage, of course, is that casual words can yield deadly results when spoken in the wrong ears. Deadly results at present would translate into global, thermonuclear conflict.

What was Senator Graham thinking?

A guy like Putin, sitting at the center of a vast security apparatus ruled by fear and constant spying on underlings, is most sensitive – of all things – to signs that his underlings are moving to oust him.

Doesn’t it seem like active and public encouragement of a coup by spokesmen of a rival superpower would make the chances of that coup succeeding much less likely? What are the chances of success if you give the Dear Leader a very public tip-off that a coup is coming?

In fact, leveling such a threat is likely to have the opposite effect. The intended object of the coup will act all the more recklessly and aggressively, potentially moving preemptively against any and all senior officers in his regime who are in pole position to pull off such a putsch.

In fact, there’s evidence that this may be happening already.

The Daily Mail Times of London reported earlier today that Putin has arrested the chiefs of the FSB, Russia’s equivalent of the CIA. Several top spies have been placed under “house arrest” as Russia’s president “attempts to find scapegoats for the Ukraine fiasco”.

Greymantle believes it is more likely that Putin is moving quickly to preempt any chance of a coup. He knows how the game is played, having once been the head of Russia’s FSB himself.

So, if anything, tweets by Senator Graham and other Western politicians and journalists are likely to have the opposite of their intended effect. Much like the Ukraine War itself.

THE DIET OF ILLUSION

There are a couple of other striking things about Senator Graham’s tweets that are worthy of note. For their stupidity, that is.

First, how many Russians can even read the senator’s tweets? Out of top business and diplomatic circles, Russians are not all that likely to read and speak English, let alone follow a U.S. senator on Twitter. What was the senator trying to accomplish by tweeting to an audience that couldn’t even understand his words?

Second, assuming that some Russians on the receiving end of Graham’s Twitter account can read English, what are they to make of phrases like “step up to the plate”? Uhm, baseball not a sport played in Russia, senator. They barely know it exists. The metaphor is over their heads. The only Russians who might get the baseball metaphor are the oligarchs living abroad, and they’re in no position to topple the Russian government.

Third and finally, do you seriously believe the Russian people are going to engage in an enterprise that is likely to result in the deaths of many when your encouragement is bracketed with threats? When you are cursing them with darkness, isolation and poverty if they don’t comply?

Call me naive, but I’ve always understood the Russians to be a proud people. They don’t like being threatened or bullied by outsiders. That’s partly what is at the root of this conflict: the belief that NATO is infringing on their territory and vital interest. So…why would they respond to humiliation in a positive manner? Why would they carry out your wishes?

They are more likely to respond with ballistic missiles.

Senator Graham’s statement is further evidence that all too many Americans, our elected representatives included, have lost touch with reality and prefer to consume what Greymantle terms “the Diet of lllusion”. This is nothing less than a constant diet of self-affirming fantasy and wishful thinking in place of common sense and verifiable facts.

It’s dangerous to posture and bluster when one’s understanding of the effect of one’s words is limited, or dangerously deluded. For all our sake’s, I seriously hope that no one in Putin’s circle saw that tweet or, if they saw it, they neglected to mention it to the Russian president.

Here’s a word of advice for Senator Graham: please refrain from shouting “fire” in a crowded nuclear theatre in the future.

The United States began its history with the “Shot Heard ’round the World” at Lexington and Concord in 1775. Let’s hope that US history doesn’t end with “the Tweet that Blew up the World” in 2022.

Our hotheads need to cool down a bit.

Until next time, I remain —

Greymantle