The military situation in Ukraine is escalating by the hour. Russian artillery are blasting Ukrainian cities to rubble and refugees are streaming across borders into neighboring Poland, Slovakia and Romania by the millions. Rumors that Russian President Putin may deploy chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces and civilians now abound.
While Ukraine burns, NATO countries, the US included, are shipping vast quantities of anti-tank weapons, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, and rifles to the beleaguered Ukrainian military. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, suggested on Friday that military convoys delivering weapons to Ukrainian forces might be the next targets of the Russian air force.
This situation isn’t sustainable. While President Biden and other NATO leaders last week refrained from imposing a ‘no fly’ zone over Ukraine – a development akin to an act of war against Russia, if pursued – and decided against shipping surplus MiG fighters from Poland to Ukraine, the risks of unstoppable escalation in Russo-Western hostilities are rising.
The press is filled with talk of finding an ‘off-ramp’ for Russia’s President Putin that would allow him to save face and withdraw troops from Ukraine. But the fact of the matter is, NATO needs its own off-ramp.
Western weapons in the hands of Ukrainian forces are being used to kill Russian soldiers. Greymantle supports the Ukrainian’s people’s quest for freedom and sovereignty. Nevertheless, the Kremlin won’t tolerate much more spilled Russian blood from the barrels of NATO-made guns before making good on its darker threats.
It’s time for the NATO alliance to pivot to another solution.
COUNTRIES OUTSIDE NATO CAN ARM UKRAINE
At this hour, it’s probable that only the combined efforts of the NATO member countries can supply Ukraine with the quantity of material and ammunition it needs to get through the next three weeks. But beyond the short-term horizon, other nations would be willing to step in.
The arms industry, like every other, is driven by cold, hard cash. Ukraine has abundant natural resources, not least lithium, grain, and precious metals. There are nations that will accept a combination of cash, cryptocurrency and leases of mineral rights to sell weapons to Ukraine. In fact, they are probably working to cut deals at this very moment.
In addition to the incentive of profit, there is a broader willingness among many nations of the world community to thwart the designs of Russia. Russia has considerable influence in the Middle East and parts of South America, but is resented and feared for that influence no less than the United States and often more so.
Sunni Muslims have learned the lessons of Syria and know the stories out of Chechnya. Colombians have ample reasons to be alarmed by Russia’s support of the regime in neighboring Venezuela. A variety of African nations and political factions have grown weary of Moscow’s interference.
THE MINNOWS AND THE WHALE
Russia has few natural allies. Unfortunately, the allies it does have at the moment are imposing.
The People’s Republic of China, the world’s most populous nation and second-largest economy, has thrown its economic weight behind Russia and promises to support the Russian economy with hundreds of billions of loans and trade support. India, while not openly on Moscow’s side, has maintained a posture of studied neutrality. India purchases most of its military hardware from Russia.
Size isn’t everything, however.
The nation’s with the most to lose from the shattering of the rules-based international system built up by the U.S. since 1945 are small nations at risk of being gobbled up by larger neighbors. If the world reverts back to the laws of Great Power struggle that existed prior to the World Wars, these nations have much to fear. Small countries are most invested in the status quo.
Therefore, it seems most likely that an informal coalition of small nations could coalesce very quickly with a goal of directly or secretly supporting Ukraine with arms, intelligence and technological assistance. The U.S. and other NATO countries could facilitate the formation of this coalition behind the scenes – without explicitly endorsing it.
Call it “the school of minnows versus the Russian whale”.
IT DOESN’T TAKE A GENIUS
It’s not hard to think of who might contribute. Greymantle has already mentioned Colombia. Qatar would be another logical member of the “Minnow Coalition” being a U.S. ally and antagonist of Syria. Other tiny but formidable fish include Israel, Sri Lanka, South Africa (a mid-sized nation, in truth) and Taiwan. All formerly “non-aligned” nations.
All of these nations share a number of things in common. They have small populations and are surrounded by enemy powers. Their enemies are, or have previously been, aligned with Russia. They are wealthy and possess talented entreprenuerial classes. And, finally, they are technologically sophisticated and well-armed, with weapons to spare.
In addition, several or most of them have stakes, in some cases high stakes, in the outcome of the Ukrainian War and Russo-NATO struggles. Imagine what Israeli anti-missile technology, Taiwanese communications rigs, Qatari oil and South African machine guns could accomplish.
And what would the combined impact be if Finland and Sweden, both non-NATO European nations, facilitated the transfers?
TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE
But NATO is running out of time. Nearly three weeks into the war, Russo-US tensions are rising. Ukraine may still smash the Russian expeditionary forces and expel them from their soil by mid-spring, but the balance of forces is on Russia’s side.
And Russia’s president isn’t in a patient mood.
NATO has to find a way to step back from the brink, and fast.
Until next time, I remain —
Greymantle
