The title of our first blog post of 2024 should come as no surprise. It’s what practically everyone in North America, Europe, Russia, the Middle East, and East Asia is thinking.
We generally try to offer new and different insights on these pages, and we sincerely tried coming up with something jarring that would differentiate us from the pack. “2024: Year of the Singularity!” “Get Ready for a U.S. Banking Crash!” “Tom Cruise Wins Best Actor!”. But none of these headlines really seemed to be anything other than laughable.
The truth of the matter is that 2024 is going to hold fewer surprises than did 2020, 2022, and 2023. It’s more or less going to proceed as scheduled, with all the thrills, chills and horrors that you would expect. We may be spared some horrors only to have others visited upon us, but the general drift of things in a period marked by tension and crisis isn’t going to veer off into some unexpected “it’s 1992, and Peace Breaks Out” kind of moment or a plunge into World War III either.
So we are going to stick with the obvious on the headline, but will offer a number of what we hope are fairly astute forecasts in the body. The Devil is in the details, after all…
OUR TWO BIGGEST PREDICTIONS FOR 2024: TRUMP LOSES, AND NO TAIWAN INVASION
So, here goes: Greymantle’s two biggest predictions for the new year are (1) Donald Trump will not win the 2024 presidential election, and (2) China will not invade Taiwan or otherwise engage in an overt military confrontation with the United States in the South China Sea.
Those two predictions should come as a big relief to anyone who places any faith in them. After all, the greatest terror hanging over much of the world today is that Donald Trump will be re-elected President of the United States (POTUS) on Nov. 5, 2024. For about 60 million Americans, this possibility is their fondest hope rather than deepest fear – there are two sides to every coin, of course. For most people outside of deep red U.S. voting districts and the Kremlin, however, the thought of a Trump re-election makes them automatically reach for the Alka-Seltzer.
Greymantle places a lot of stock in these two predictions. From whence comes my confidence?
ONCE AGAIN, DON’T BELIEVE THE POLLS
Where Trump is concerned, Greymantle has said it before and will say it again – don’t believe the polls. U.S. polls have become very skewed in recent years, with only the most actively engaged partisans bothering to answer polling questions. The 60% or so of Americans in ‘the middle’ respond to polls less often and their views are often discounted.
About 25% of Trump’s own core voters say they will NOT vote for him if he is convicted of a felony. That is very consistent across multiple surveys. And take it from Greymantle, folks, Donald Trump will most assuredly be convicted of at least one felony involving jail time in 2024 — more likely several felonies. Americans have never placed a felon in the White House, and they are not going to start now. Not even in their current confused, divided, unhappy and rather depraved state. I put the chances at about 5%.
Here is my prediction for Mr. Trump for 2024: He will close out the year either in prison, or dead. He will not be closing 2024 out by naming cabinet members for a second Trump Administration.
JOE BIDEN’S SWANSONG, NIKKI HALEY’S MOMENT
Does my prediction automatically mean that Joe Biden will win re-election as President? If he is the Democratic nominee, then yes. And he will be handily re-elected, currently low approval ratings notwithstanding. Ronald Reagan presided over a worse U.S. economy in late 1983 the year before his re-election, and he won a second term in a landslide. Expect a smaller landslide for Biden, but still a pretty sold victory with somewhere north of 300 electoral votes.
There are two other possibilities for a Democratic victor, however, and one alternative Republican possibility. On the Democratic side, those are California Governor Gavin Newson and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who could step in after a nominating process at the July Democratic convention in Chicago to fill Biden’s shoes should he decide not to bow out of the race in the spring of 2024. There is a chance this could happen ifTrump is washing out of the GOP primaries.
Greymantle puts chances for the above (Biden retiring gracefully) at about 25%. First, Nikki Haley – the alternative GOP nominee – would have to tie up the nomination by mid-April convincingly in order for Biden to be assured that he won’t be running against Trump. If that’s the case, and internal White House polling shows Haley winning over Biden in the general election, then Biden could indeed step aside in favor of the two alternative Democratic contenders named above, or Vice President Kamala Harris.
Either way, either with Trump or without Trump, this is going to be Joe Biden’s swansong. Biden has been involved in politics for over 50 years. In a lot of ways, he is an incredible political dinosaur: an old-fashioned Irish American pol in the mold of Boston Mayor James Michael Curley. The 2024 election will be Biden’s ‘Last Hurrah’ much in the same way the 1949 election was Curley’s last hurrah and the title of a fine novel based on that colorful man and his very colorful last election. Contrary to the novel’s ending, however, if Biden is the Democratic nominee for POTUS, he is going to win the election.
For Nikki Haley, 2024 is her ‘make or break’ moment. If she beats Trump for the nomination, then she makes history. She won’t be the first female presidential candidate; that was dear old Hilary Clinton back in 2016 – anyone remember her? But, if nominated, Haley does stand a shot at defeating Biden and becoming America’s first female POTUS. For defeating Trump alone, she would make the history books.
I put Haley’s chances of winning the Republican nomination at slightly over 50%. It’s not assured by any means, but she has a real chance of beating Trump if former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis bow out of the race early, preferably just after the Iowa Caucuses on Jan. 15, turning the GOP nominating contest into a two-way race between Ms. Haley and Mr. Trump. In that race, she has a slightly better than 50% chance of winning, and if she wins both the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, then I would put her chances at closer to 60%.
WHY BELIEVE XI JINPING’S WORD ON ANYTHING?
Now to the Taiwan Straits and the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
There is a respectable body of opinion in the U.S. and international military communities that the People’s Republic of China is going to make a decisive move against the island of Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province of China, in 2024.
The timing would make a lot of sense for China. The U.S. will be embroiled in a contentious general election all year, and the U.S. military is arguably over-extended due to its material support of Ukraine against Russia in Europe and its more direct logistical and tactical support of Israel in the eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea. Ammunition supplies are low given the diversion of so much NATO shells, bullets and other material to the Ukraine front.
Some military analysts believe that the U.S. Navy has only a one month’s supply of surface-to-air missiles in its arsenal to conduct a war against another major power, i.e. China. Meanwhile, China has built up a large arsenal of ship-killing medium range missiles and nuclear submarines in the western Pacific. Under these circumstances, a U.S. naval confrontation against China in the South China Sea could have disastrous consequences for the U.S. Navy and Air Force. The Pentagon is sitting on pins.
Set against this strategic conundrum is a fair body of circumstantial and documentary evidence that China’s premiere leader, Xi Jinping, who serves as China’s president, Chairman of its Central Military Commission, and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), does not believe the China is, in fact, ready for such a confrontation with the U.S. and would rather bide his time and wait to see who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election before making his move against Taiwan.
Mr. Xi has also apparently made some assurances to President Biden that China will not launch a naval attack on Taiwan in 2024, while making clear that he views Taiwan’s reintegration with mainland China as both “an inevitability” as well as a “non-negotiable near or medium-term demand of China”.
When the two leaders met for a high-level conference in San Francisco, California on Nov. 15, 2023, they agreed to restore high-level communications between the Chinese and U.S. military while working to stabilize overall U.S-China relations, which have been tense since 2017. Mr. Xi agreed to take action to limit the importation of the deadly drug fentanyl into the U.S. from Asia, and made other assurances.
China has entered into many economic and trade agreements with the U.S. in the past, and has tended to stick to its side of the bargain only when placed under considerable pressure. Mr. Xi has broken promises with adversaries and allies alike in the past, so there is reason to doubt any assurances that he made have made to President Biden, particularly where Taiwan is concerned.
MR. XI BIDES HIS TIME
Nevertheless, there exist solid reasons for Mr. Xi to stay his hand for another year against Taiwan. First and foremost among these is the currently weak state of the Chinese economy, which appears to be entering a period of prolonged slowdown due to a massive correction in its real estate market that has been underway since at least 2021 and which has led to the bankruptcy of notable property lenders and realtors and threatens to ensnare major Chinese banks and municipal governments.
Against this pressured backdrop, Mr. Xi may not want to risk alienating the U.S. in ways that threaten a sudden and dramatic de-coupling of the American and Chinese economies. At such a moment of fiscal vulnerability, Mr. Xi may fear plunging China into a deep recession (or worse), possibly endangering his rule and the stability of the country. Until the property market correction passes, Mr. Xi, a sprightly 70 years old, may wish to bide his time for another one to two years before striking decisively.
Furthermore, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election could result in a further dramatic shake-up to Sino-American relations. If Mr. Trump wins, he has declared that his administration will move to ‘completely de-couple’ the U.S. economy from China’s. The former U.S. trade envoy from his first administration, Robert Lighthizer, has drafted detailed plans to effectuate such a de-coupling.
On Nov. 6, 2024, if Mr. Trump has been re-elected, Mr. Xi may reason that, if a titanic economic blow from the U.S. in the form of a complete economic pull-back is going to happen anyway, then China has nothing to lose by launching an all-out attack on Taiwan across the Taiwan Straits. In fact, he may choose to make his move during the presidential transition between November 2024 and January 2025. That would logically be the most vulnerable time for the U.S. military.
On the other hand, if Mr. Biden is re-elected, or if another contender such as Ms. Haley or Mr. Newson were to be elected, then Mr. Xi would likely follow a slower and more cautious path to the attack against Taiwan, potentially waiting another year or two to see if Biden’s age finally begins to get the better of him – if he is still dealing with Biden – or, alternatively, waiting to take the measure of a President Haley or a President Newson before deciding on his next move.
The past two years have already given some indications that Mr. Xi is cautious when it comes to making a major provocation to the United States. Mr. Biden was able to convince Mr. Xi to forego providing direct Chinese military aid to Russia in its war against Ukraine in the late spring of 2022, when such aid would have been most consequential. It is not known precisely what Mr. Biden said to Mr. Xi during their video call in March 2022, but whatever it was, it surely dissuaded Mr. Xi from providing anything other than economic support to his Russian allies.
Greymantle has often wondered about that call. What was Biden’s leverage? Was it purely economic, in the form of holding out the carrot a Sino-U.S. rapprochement in the economic sphere after the confrontational tactics of Mr. Biden’s predecessor? Mr. Biden was racheting up trade pressure on China throughout 2021 and 2022. Was that to show that he was serious on a number of fronts? If economics was the carrot, then what was the stick? What has Biden got on Xi?
Whatever the leverage was – and is – it appears to be working, for now.
Unless there is some other major surprise in early 2024, Greymantle believes that China is going to hold off on the Taiwan invasion and watch how America’s embattled allies – Israel and Ukraine – and particularly Israel, perform in the first half of 2024.
TEN MORE BIG PREDICTIONS FOR 2024
To limit the length of this post and get to the point faster for our next set of predictions, Greymantle is going to present his next ten biggest predictions in bullet form, with limited exposition following.
- Vladimir Putin wins the March 2024 Russian Presidential election (no surprises there!) but does NOT initiate a general military mobilization in the spring. He will wait until 2025 to launch a general mobilization – after the U.S. presidential election, for which he also eagerly awaits the outcome.
- President Biden and the Republicans in Congress will not agree to a ‘Border Deal‘ to halt the flow of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border. Biden will try in vain to reach a deal, but Speaker Mike Johnson will float impossible demands to sink any such deal in hopes that the ‘border chaos’ issue will undermine Biden in the general election.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be pushed out of office in 2024. He won’t step down voluntarily. Greymantle has no idea as to how “Bibi’s” political peers will succeed in getting him out of office, but I have a strong intuition that they will find a way. The entire political class and roughly 70% of voters are simply sick of Bibi. Expect major skullduggery.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank will cut short-term rates three times in 2024, to 4.75% from 5.5%. The rate cuts will help to spur faster economic growth and a property market rebound.
- The U.S. economy will deeply and broadly outperform forecast in 2024.
- Labour will win a sweeping UK general election victory, tossing the Tories out of office in Whitehall after nearly 14 years in power (except for a brief interlude in 2018-19) and badly shrinking the Scottish National Party’s majority in Scotland.
- European far-right parties will gain significant ground in the June 2024 elections for the European Parliament. The EU as a body will begin moving decisively to the right.
- The Turkish ruling party, the AKP, will perform poorly in 2024 regional elections.
- The Israeli Defense Forces will find and neutralize Hamas’ secret ‘Redoubt’ or underground fortress in late February, capturing or killing most major Hamas leaders, but losing more than half the hostages still held by Hamas.
- Internal and external pressure on the Iranian regime will continue to escalate with renewed mass protests, terrorist attacks on Iranian officials and acts of Israeli sabotage. Though most experts believe it unlikely that the regime will be overthrown or otherwise collapse, Greymantle places the odds of an Iranian regime collapse in 2024 at about 40%.
A few additional thoughts on the above.
In relation to a ‘Border Deal’ between President Biden and Congress, while Greymantle does not believe that such a deal will be reached given GOP opposition, I do believe that President Biden is going to make his own major initiatives focused on the U.S.-Mexico border with the intent of stemming the flow of migrants into the U.S. from Central America. Expect a major announcement in Feb. or March.
Regarding Russian President Putin and his refraining from a general mobilization in spring 2024, I believe this will be a big mistake on Putin’s part. With a general mobilization, he might capture significant ground from Ukraine in 2024. Without it, he won’t. Ukraine’s utilization of F-16 fighters starting in the spring will make major Russian advances less likely.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will seek to prolong the Israel-Hamas War in order to remain in office, but the IDF’s discovery of the Hamas Redoubt and pressure from the public to free the hostages will force his hand. If he delays, then it becomes a pretext for his peers in the unity government to move against him as a body and remove him from office. If he acts, then the war ends – more or less – and the pressure on him to resign mounts.
On Iran, while the regime has all the guns, it is increasingly overstretched and vulnerable. The regime is far more unpopular than the last Shah was in 1978-79 just prior the Iranian Revolution. Any major sign of regime weakness could lead to demonstrations that bring it down. The Kerman bombing on Jan. 3 engineered by ISIS may be the first sign of major regime weakness. Nearly 100 persons were killed, nearly all regime insiders and some high-ranking ones at that. One or two more bloodlettings of regime figures of that size, and the mullahs will be trembling in their boots.
If the Iranian regime falls, it will be a geopolitical earthquake of massive proportions, but very, very good for the U.S., the West, Israel and even the Saudis. If it happens in 2024, what incredible good fortune for President Biden!
THING THAT WON’T HAPPEN IN 2024
- Vladimir Putin will not be overthrown in 2024. Look for that in 2025.
- The ‘Singularity’ will not be achieved.
- Russian will not launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
- Ukraine will not be defeated by Russia.
- It is most unlikely that Venezuelan President Maduro will step down or lose office.
THE SUM OF ALL FEARS – AND DON’T EVEN SAY IT
As in most of my posts, I am going to leave my readers with a couple of big parting thoughts to consider until next time. The first one concerns the potential downsides of the U.S. presidential election not related to a Trump victory, but rather, related to a Trump defeat.
The problem with Trump is, most fundamentally, that he refuses to accept defeat. For Trump, victory must be bought at ANY cost. The smallest cost to him is to lie. But for the country, that could be a very big cost indeed. If and when Trump loses the election, he is not going to concede. Instead, he will lie and insist that he, in fact, won the election.
Now, with him out of office and not having direct access to the powers of the Presidency, this may seem like a much less hazardous scenario in 2024 than it was in 2020 when he was ensconced in the Oval Office and had all executive powers at his disposal.
But never underestimate this man. He realizes that he is fighting for his life here. Once sent to prison, he is never coming out alive. Think Jeffrey Epstein.
Rather than face the same fate Trump will be most willing to drive the country into…deeper conflict in order to save his skin. The real danger of 2024 – and please don’t even say it — I am not going to even write the words on this blog – is not that Trump wins re-election. It’s that Trump loses re-election, and what steps he decides to take then. I would still like to have a country come 2025.
Which is why Greymantle is personally pulling for a Nikki Haley nomination, beginning with big upsets in Iowa and New Hampshire later this month, that completely change the trajectory of the race. As long as Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, we here in America, and around the world, too, will have a lot less to worry about on this wild and bumpy and very scary ride that is to be the year 2024.
Until next time, I remain —
Greymantle
