As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election moves into its most critical phase, Vice President Kamala Harris and her campaign stand at a dramatic crossroads. Her candidacy represents a dramatic shift in style and focus for the Democratic Party compared to that of outgoing President Joe Biden, offering a bridge to undecided and independent voters who are often pivotal in close elections, many of whom had been wavering in their support for President Biden before he dropped out of the race on July 21.
The key question is: Can Harris secure the necessary support across key constituencies to tip the voting scales in her favor and swing the general election towards the Democrats?
Kamala Harris, once doubted by many Democratic voters and political pundits, has proven herself to be a formidable contender for the nation’s highest since assuming the mantle of Democratic presidential candidate in mid-July. Now she has to prove she can seal the deal with undecided voters.
Harris’s candidacy brings a unique blend of experience and identity, but one of the most compelling aspects of her political resume is her legal background. As a one time prosecutor and former of Attorney General of California, Harris has a deep understanding of law enforcement, public safety, and the justice system—areas that resonate strongly with a broad cross-section of voters concerned about crime, border security, and criminal justice reform. Her prosecutorial background could be her greatest asset in winning over moderate voters who might otherwise feel skeptical about the Democratic platform.
Law-and-Order Credibility
In a political climate where public safety remains a top concern, particularly in swing states and suburban districts, Harris’s experience as California’s top law enforcement officer offers her a rare advantage. The perception of Democrats as being “soft on crime” is a challenge the party has faced at various times since the 1970s, including in recent years, and Harris’s record provides a counter-narrative. She can point to her time as Attorney General when she worked to tackle organized crime, consumer protection fraud, and even technology-related threats like cybercrime.
For undecided voters who are looking for pragmatic solutions rather than extreme partisanship, Harris’s law-and-order credentials could be a key selling point. Her tenure as a prosecutor— where she was often seen as tough, but fair—resonates with voters concerned about the rise in crime rates that occurred in 2020-21 during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially voters in both urban and suburban areas who were personally touched by those events. Independent voters in particular, who often fluctuate between both parties based on issues of public safety, might find her experience reassuring.
A Balanced Approach to Criminal Justice Reform
Harris’s appeal is not just about toughness, however. She is also positioned as a candidate who understands the need for reform, particularly sentencing reform, within the justice system. While her prosecutorial record has drawn criticism from some progressives for being too stringent, she has also earned praise for her evolving stance on some aspects of criminal justice reform.
Her advocacy for measures such as reducing mandatory minimum sentences, promoting rehabilitation programs, and addressing racial disparities in policing and incarceration could speak to voters who are looking for a balanced approach—tough on crime, but also mindful of systemic imbalances and inequities within the institutions responsible for upholding the law, prosecuting offenders, and applying corrective measures, including jail time. This duality allows Harris to thread the needle between appealing to moderates and independents who prioritize security, and progressives who demand justice reform.
The Sex and Race Factor
Kamala Harris’s candidacy also comes with symbolic significance, as she is the first woman to ever hold the position of Vice President and the second woman (Hilary Clinton being the first) to be a candidate for U.S. President. Harris is also the first woman of African and Indian descent to seek the nation’s highest office, and the first candidate having a so-called ‘mixed marriage’ to seek the presidency. These historic aspects of her candidacy and personal identity hold strong appeal for many voters, particularly women and minority groups, who see her as a role model and a reflection of a more inclusive America.
Yet, it is her professional track record in law enforcement, rather than her identity, that may ultimately sway undecided voters. In past elections, identity politics alone has not proven to be a sufficient force, by itself, to capture the critical middle ground of the U.S. electorate. Voters, particularly independents, tend to focus on more experience and competency when making their final decision, and Harris’s legal expertise gives her a clear selling point of positive differentiation in that regard.
The Contender: Can Kamala Harris Seal the Deal?
As the November 5 general election looms closer, Harris is attempting to present herself as a candidate who not only understands the complexities of public safety but is prepared to act on them with pragmatism. Her law enforcement background positions her as a formidable contender who can appeal to the center of the electorate—the crucial, undecided voters in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who will ultimately decide the outcome.
Harris faces a delicate balancing act. She must maintain and expand her progressive base while reaching across the aisle to independents and moderates. Her prosecutorial past offers her the credentials to do this, but it also brings challenges, as hard-left progressives may question the depth of her commitment to criminal justice reform. To win, Harris must effectively communicate how her background allows her to approach the future of law enforcement in a way that balances both public safety and greater fairness and balance with regard to criminal defendants.
The road to the White House can be narrow and unpredictable, and Kamala Harris’s ability to connect her experience with the concerns of independent voters will be critical. If she can leverage her legal career to appeal to those who value both security and reform, she just might seal the deal and lead the Democrats to victory in 2024.
Strong Debate Performance Cements Harris’s Strengths
Harris’s steady performance against former President Trump during the September 10 presidential debate in Philadelphia, PA appears to have cemented some of her strengths in the minds of voters. Though she initially appeared slightly nervous, Harris gradually found her footing during the course of the debate and managed to rattle her opponent, goading Trump into a series of intemperate comments.
The spectacle of Trump veering off into an angry discourse about illegal immigration, punctuated by his repeating of wildly conspiratorial (and unsubstantiated) rumors about Haitian immigrants devouring other residents’ pet cats in Springfield, Ohio, provided a useful contrast to Kamala Harris’s calm demeanor and superior equipoise under stress.
As Trump went off on a wild tangent during which he claimed that “millions of murderers, rapists, drug dealers, and inmates of foreign insane asylums are flooding across America’s southern border to capture the jobs of hard-working Americans”, viewers were left to wonder ponder whether a vote for Mr. Trump might itself not constitute a vote for someone who would be better served by a stay in a mental institution than a trip back to the Oval Office.
While Trump spewed venom, Harris rolled her eyes and smirked.
Harris’s cool contempt may ultimately prove to be a better tack than the approaches used by her peers in prior presidential contests versus Mr. Trump. Where Hilary Clinton displayed high-handed disgust and Joe Biden huffed righteous indignation at Trump’s fulminations and antics, Harris’s decision to treat Trump as a naughty child may prove the wiser choice, particularly if it pays dividends in the market of public opinion (which it might already be doing).
A Game of Inches
Support for Kamala Harris surged among Democrats in the weeks after President Biden dropped out of the U.S. presidential contest, and she enjoyed a modest additional bounce in support during the Democratic convention among Democrats and Independents, as expected.
Since the start of September, her poll numbers have come down to earth a bit – which was also expected given that post-convention bounces for candidates typically don’t last – but the numbers published last week don’t include polling data collected since the Sept. 10 debate. We’ll know within a few days the extent to which her debate performance has solidified her standing among blocs of likely voters.
Greymantle wagers that Trump’s poor debate performance probably softened his support by 1-2 percentage points, with Harris benefiting. That’s a minimal shift in support, and incredible to consider for someone my age who can remember a time, not that long ago, when comments akin to what Trump utters on a daily basis would have pounded a nail into the coffin of any politician’s career. How the country has changed! And not for the better, either.
Still, it’s likely that a one or two percentage point shift is all it will take to shift the November 5 election decisively, in one direction or another.
Given the closely divided and highly polarized nature of the U.S. politically, the debate may still not have pushed Kamala decisively over the edge. It’s going to be another white-knuckled, razor close election no matter what happens, given the outsize roll the Electoral College plays in U.S. presidential elections, not to mention the truly shocking amounts of money spent on advertising and America’s increasingly propagandistic media environment, particularly on the political right.
It’s a game of inches. But Kamala Harris may well be inching toward victory.
Which Predictions Model to Believe?
On the question of whether Kamala Harris has the ability to “seal the deal” with key blocs of American voters, the answer will ultimately come down to America’s present economic and social backdrop (a growing economy and no riots in the streets), and the subtle ways in which the country has changed over the past four and eight years.
Greymantle is a great believer in the predictive power of Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to U.S. Presidential Elections” and I am happy to recommend Dr. Lichtman’s most recent video-format prediction made in the New York Times on September 5. He predicts that Vice President Harris will win the election. I’m also a great fan of Nate Silver and his election prediction models. Silver has built several such models, and the two he most often cites are presently in conflict, with one predicting a 60% chance of a Trump victory and the other predicting a 54% likelihood of a Harris victory.
Between the predictive models of Lichtman and Silver, Greymantle is more inclined towards the Lichtman model, as it is the simpler of the two (I’m amalgamating Nate Silver’s various models together here) and also the more elegant given that the factors Lichtman cites are more unchanging over time and more easily understood by non-experts. Additionally, Lichtman has a much longer track record of correctly predicting election outcomes than has Nate Silver, so I would put my money on Lichtman’s model.
That being said, Greymantle thinks about elections somewhat differently than the two prognosticators cited above, and I pay attention to a somewhat different set of factors. From my perspective, shifting demographic and cultural patterns, and the ascendency of key swing issues play critical rolls in deciding election outcomes. Equally important are the growing rolls played by new forms of media and concentrated financial and media power, as well as the ability and willingness of wielders of that power to resort to highly propagandistic approaches to sway elections.
How 2024 Differs from 2016 and 2020
Despite Donald Trump being one of the two major party nominees for U.S. President in 2024, this year differs from 2016 and 2020 in important respects that may open a path to victory for Kamala Harris.
Where demographics are concerned, the reshaping of the U.S. electorate into one that is “younger and browner” in the words of some demographers, has proceeded apace since 2016, when Trump first ran for the highest office. The ‘Baby Boomers’ and ‘Greatest’ generations have been dying off, with voters belonging to the ‘Gen X’ and ‘Millenial’ generations replacing them at the poll booths. Given that some of the most committed Trump voters are older, white Americans, the aging out of this key base of Trump’s demographic support is bad news for his camp.
Somewhat counterbalancing the dying off of one key Trump demographic is the shift of the U.S. population to the South and the Southwest, which favors Republicans as Republican politics tends to dominate in most states located in these regions, Colorado and New Mexico being exceptions. When “younger and browner” voters grow up and work in low-tax, low-regulation, less socially liberal states, then they tend to lean Republican like their white compatriots.
One could argue that these two forces counter-balance each other perfectly, resulting in a net wash in terms of the electoral effects.
Will Death Have the Last Laugh?
Not so fast, Greymantle says. A hard core of MAGA voters refused to take the COVID-19 vaccines rolled out by the Trump administration (and then, the Biden Administration) from December 2020 to July 2021. In 2021 and 2022, COVID-19 deaths in Republican-leaning areas outpaced deaths from COVID-19 in Democratic-leaning areas. This is likely to have a demonstrable effect on election results in places such as Arizona, Michigan, Ohio and Georgia, three of which are classed as ‘swing states’. It may have already done so in the November 2022 midterms.
Don’t bet that Death won’t have the last laugh in 2024.
Women on the Verge of an Electoral Breakthrough
Another way in which 2024 differs from the prior two presidential elections is the increased salience of abortion and so-called ‘reproductive rights’ issues at the ballot box compared to 2016 and 2020. Following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, liberal and moderate women across the U.S. mobilized against MAGA candidates and legal measures to restrict abortion at the ballot box, swinging several state referenda on abortion rights strongly in the Democratic direction, even in conservative states such as Kansas and Ohio.
Speaking more generally, American women now outnumber men and out-register them to vote by narrow, but potentially decisive margins. If 2024 really is going to be the ‘boys versus girls election‘ as some pundits have labelled it, then it’s more likely that ‘the girls’ are going to win it. Speaking narrowly on the topic of abortion, Greymantle believes this issue will motivate women to turn out to vote against Donald Trump in 2024, even if Republican women vote for other GOP candidates down-ballot.
Back in January 2024, Greymantle ruminated on the ways in which rising education levels and voter registrations by women would reshape American elections. If the widening ‘gender gap‘ in this election is any indication, November 5, 2024 will be a decisive moment.
The ‘Outsider’ No More
A third way in which 2024 differs from the two prior elections is that Trump is neither the novel ‘outsider’ candidate that he was in 2016, nor the incumbent President, which he was in 2020. Lacking the key advantages of either outsider status or incumbency, Trump has to make a case for himself as a president emeritus who should be returned to power, January 6 be damned. But January 6 can’t be washed away so easily, nostalgia among some Trump voters for his time in office before the pandemic aside. In any case, it is going to be tough for Trump to style himself as an ‘agent of change’.
Two Coalitions, Under Pressure
Fourth and finally, it’s starting to look as if Kamala Harris has successfully re-assembled the same coalition of voters that Barack Obama forged for his successful 2008 and 2012 presidential runs. Black voters, especially Black women, educated and liberal whites, gays, pro-choice voters, union members, and a large enough group of other minority voters could swing the election toward the Dems.
One of the key reasons that Hilary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential race to Donald Trump is that she was unable to maintain Obama’s base of Black and progressive voters behind her. Blacks had never been as keen on Hilary as they were on her husband, Bill Clinton, and many progressives were put off by Hilary’s treatment of her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders, and sat out the general election.
By contrast, Joe Biden successfully re-assembled enough of Obama’s coalition to ensure his victory in 2020. After beating Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries, Biden was able to secure the support of his former opponent in short order. Biden won in a crowded Democratic primary field with critical support from moderate Black voters, who stuck with him in the 2020 general election. In addition, the terrible spectacle of Donald Trump in office was enough to motivate liberals, progressives and moderates, along with a handful of old-school conservatives, to support the Democratic ticket.
Kamala Harris isn’t weighted down with the high negative perceptions that stuck to Hilary Clinton or the perception of extreme old age that torpedoed Joe Biden. Harris, at 59, is a young-looking middle aged person with a relatively neutral public persona. Between Harris and Trump, Trump is by far the more polarizing public figure, and has much higher negative polling averages than does Harris. If the contest ultimately turns on which candidate has lower ‘negatives’, then Harris wins.
Norm-Breakers and the Disaffected Wherever You Look
The two things that have changed since 2016 and 2020 that might actually favor Donald Trump in 2024 are, first, the incidence of high inflation that dogged the Biden term, and has only recently begun to abate, and, secondly, the widespread feeling among many voter groups that ‘wokeness‘ has gone too far and that progressives act like bullies once in power.
Both reasons appear to be what is motivating a growing group of Black and Hispanic men to throw their support to Trump and the Republicans. If Harris can keep the support of Black women, but loses, say, 20% to 25% of Black men to Trump, then this could cause her serious problems in states such as Georgia and North Carolina, which are critical to her chances in the Electoral College.
Finally, the changes wrought into conservative voters’ minds by social media apps such as Facebook and Twitter, the shattering of old behavioral norms, and the steady drumbeat of hysterical propaganda to which consumers of right-wing media subject themselves to, could hold together the motley group of populist reactionaries who support Trump enough to ensure a victory.
Kamala Harris still needs to seal the deal. She’s got seven weeks left in which to do so.
Until next time, I remain –
Greymantle
