…And, we’re back!
After being offline for two months due to some very pesky technical issues, Greymantle’s Politics and Culture (GPAC) is back online and back in business. Did you miss us?
It’s been quite a couple of months to be sitting on the sidelines. Since late July, the U.S. Democrats’ poll numbers have improved considerably in the run-up to the November mid-term elections as the price of gas at the pump has steadily backed off its May-June highs.
President Biden’s approval ratings have recovered somewhat, and the Democratic-controlled Congress has been able to pass some major legislation, including a scaled-back version of the president’s ‘Build Back Better’ package. The Fed has been raising rates like crazy with two 75 bps hikes since June and more to come.
But perhaps most importantly, after a summer in which its troops and civilians got battered by Russian artillery and missile strikes, Ukraine launched a major new offensive in its northeast in the first week of September, routing Russia’s army and taking back 3,000 square miles of territory in the neighborhood of Kharkiv. Putin’s forces have been forced on the defensive across the entire battlefront.
Because it’s been a while since we’ve posted and because we hate to brag, we are going to keep this post short. Our focus today: five items that we got right back in the spring on how the course of 2022 was likely to develop, and five predictions for the last quarter of the year. Okay – maybe we like to brag just a little bit.
FIVE VINDICATIONS
NUMBER ONE – UKRAINE IS WINNING
Greymantle took the view in early April that Ukraine was winning the war and was likely to continue doing so, Russia’s ‘pivot to the Donbas Region’ be damned. If the government in Kyiv could survive the war’s first three weeks and hold the Antonov Airport, then Ukraine was going to win the war — period. Events have supported our opinion.
NUMBER TWO – RUSSIA LOSES CENTRAL ASIA, TOO
Central Asian states long under Moscow’s heel would rebel against Russia, assisted by Turkey. This prediction, which Greymantle made on March 7, is coming true faster than we thought possible in the late winter. Armenia and Azerbaijan are trading blows in spite of Russia’s attempts to pull them apart, as are Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan’s government refuses to recognize Russia’s sham voter referendums in occupied Ukrainian territory.
The last must have taken some nerve as Vladimir Putin flew Russian special forces into Almaty in mid-January to support Kazakhstan’s president against street demonstrators. In all these events, we see the hand of Turkish President Erdogan.
NUMBER THREE – NUCLEAR OPTION ON THE TABLE
When Greymantle predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine last December, we communicated from the first that this conflict would ultimately come down to the use of nuclear force. This blog has stayed consisted to that message ever since.
The biggest risk here is that Russia uses one or more nuclear weapons and there is some kind of misfire that leads to the detonation of a Russian nuke on NATO territory, spurring a round of escalations. We are now at the point when those anxieties will be tested to the utmost.
NUMBER FOUR – GOODBYE TO ROE
Greymantle warned that the SCOTUS would overturn Roe v. Wade in late June, triggering an escalation of rhetoric and action – some of it violent – from the U.S. pro-abortion camp. Events since we posted this opinion on June 20 have amply confirmed our conclusions.
NUMBER FIVE – DEMS OFF LIFE SUPPORT
In both November of last year and June of this year, Greymantle predicted the U.S. mid-terms would swing modestly in the Democrats’ favor by early autumn (in terms of polling data and the general mood), partly as a result of the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe, but also because a fading pandemic would make life in the U.S. feel more ‘normal’ than it had in three years.
Recent polling data supports Greymantle’s view. While the House of Representatives is likely to tilt Republican in November, everything else is up for grabs.
And now for our predictions. It’s always a bit hazardous to make a prediction about anything. Suffice it to say that we at GPAC only make them when our intuition is practically screaming at us that events are going to take a certain turn. And decisively at that. Here goes:
FIVE PREDICTIONS FOR 4Q2022
PREDICTION ONE
Putin will go nuclear, likely during the month of October. Greymantle is far from alone in predicting that Russia will detonate a tactical, battlefield nuclear weapon before the end of 2022. What sets us slightly apart is that we are going to lean in on a timeline. We choose the second half of October.
Why? Because Russian forces are in such headlong retreat from portions of the Donbas they occupied just days ago that it’s likely that the only way to halt the Ukrainian troops’ advance is to detonate a nuke directly in their path. Putin is not going to wait until after the midterms or any nonsense like that. He is going to trigger a nuke because he believes he has to do it.
PREDICTION TWO
The Democrats will pick up two seats in the U.S. Senate. The likely ones are Pat Toomey’s old seat in Pennsylvania and one in North Carolina that is up for grabs. If the Dems pick up even one seat, they can count it as a victory. The main culprits in GOP defeats will be lousy candidates backed by Trump, lower-than-expected GOP turnout due to fears of election fraud spread (ironically) by the GOP, and a combination of Roe’s overturning and higher COVID deaths among Republican voters in many states.
PREDICTION THREE
Most sitting Democratic governors (e.g. those in Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas) will survive electoral challenges and several Dems running for open governorships (as in PA) will beat their GOP challengers. The GOP may scream voter fraud, but their own messaging will be to blame.
PREDICTION FOUR
There will be widespread civil unrest in the UK by late December due to the combined effects of the pandemic, high inflation, soaring energy bills, and a UK financial crisis brought on by the Truss cabinet’s loopy ‘Mini-budget’ which is causing all sorts of turmoil in the financial markets. Expect rioting and other disturbances.
PREDICTION FIVE
Circling back and following up on our first prediction above, NATO will respond to Russia’s detonation of a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil with a lifting of its ban on supplying Ukraine with tanks and jet fighters. In addition, NATO countries’ intelligence agencies will engage in broad sabotage against Russian economic targets. This will be a kind of ‘all bets are off’ moment, although NATO will not directly enter into war against Russia. They want the regime to crack from within.
Expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop by about 25% on the day after the Russian nuke is detonated. The Fed and the other financial regulators are likely going to have to stop trading for a couple of days as this huge shock gets absorbed by Western (and global) actors.
Okay – we’re cheating. That last one is a sixth prediction. But another one we feel pretty confident in, given the circumstances.
Hang in there, dear readers! October is going to be a bumpy ride.
Until next time, I remain —
Greymantle
