Most of us care passionately about bring ‘right’, no matter what the subject we are debating is.
Hell, half the reason Greymantle launched this blog in 2020 was that he had been right on a number of occasions – right when most of the world and the “expert class” had been wrong – and he wanted to people to know about it the next time he was right and the experts weren’t.
It’s a matter of pride. Being human, we are prideful creatures.
But there are times when it’s far better to be wrong. That’s especially true when human lives hang in the balance, and being right could mean that some people, maybe a lot of people, are going to die.
Such is the case with Greymantle’s blog post of October 3, wherein which he made several bold predictions, the last of which was that Russian President Vladimir Putin was going to explode a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine by the end of October to cover the retreat of his troops.
Thank God, he did not go ahead with his threats to do so. While Russian forces are still losing the war and are likely to retreat from Kherson Oblast within weeks or even days, Putin has not yet ‘dropped the bomb’.
All I can say is: never so happy to be wrong.
WAR IS HELL
Since Russia commenced its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, an estimated 6,300 Ukrainian civilians and 20,000 Ukrainian troops have died as a result of the war. An estimated 7 million citizens of Ukraine have become refugees, fleeing the country since the war began. Another 5 to 8 million are internally displaced, and the EU estimates that another 300,000 have been forcibly deported to Russia.
Russian military casualties have also been severe with NATO and independent sources estimating Russian deaths at 35,000 and total military casualties at between 60,000 and 80,000. This compares to the Soviet Union’s loss of 15,000 dead troops in Afghanistan over an eight year period during the 1980s.
According to the Reuters news agency, Russian missile and artillery strikes have inflicted approximately $350 billion of damage to Ukrainian civil infrastructure since February. But that number dates back to late September, before October’s round of missile and drone strikes by Russian on Ukrainian water and electricity infrastructure.
IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE
But even keeping these dreadful statistics in mind, one realizes that if Russia had detonated a tactical nuclear warhead in Ukraine last month, the death toll would have been even higher, depending on where the weapon struck. The Russian’s would likely have aimed for a larger formation of enemy troops, likely causing another 5,000-10,000 deaths and vast new havoc to Ukrainian infrastructure.
Although tactical nukes are roughly the size of and contain the destructive power of the Hiroshima bomb, even an explosive with 0.3 kilotons of explosive power would spread radiation over hundreds of miles of territory, likely not limited to Ukraine’s borders.
The radiation from a tactical nuclear weapon would disperse quickly, with the radioactive fallout present down to only 1 percent of the initial amount released by the explosion within two days of detonation.
Nevertheless, the detonation of a tactical nuke would have spread all kinds of other shock waves throughout the world and could have led to a sharp escalation of the conflict.
SMALL MERCIES
It doesn’t cost much to admit you are wrong. When I’ve done this in the past, it usually comes with a feeling of relief.
This time, the relief is double. Biden and Zelensky called Putin’s bluff, and Putin has blinked – yet again. Perhaps it’s a hopeful sign for 2023.
Until next time, I remain –
Greymantle
