Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Insights into the Long Game

Why We Write This Blog, Part 1

In today's post, we veer sharply away from the geopolitical to delve, if ever so briefly, into the deeply personal. Why we write this blog is a tale of a lifelong obsession with forecasts and predictions. Having been eerily correct in foreseeing several critical events, when almost no one else did, convinced us that transforming our forecasting obsession into regular, public exercise was worth a shot.

The Sentimentalist: Joe Biden and Liberalism’s Decline

Biden’s political career is a case study in the dangers of reactive sentimentality. From his early years in politics, when his personal animus toward Richard Nixon drove his political decisions, to his handling of the Bork and Thomas confirmation hearings, Biden’s political choices have been driven more by emotion than by reasoned analysis.

2025 Forecast: Resetting the Global Chessboard

As we enter 2025, the global landscape is poised for a number of transformative events. The beginning of an economic bubble in the U.S. under the second Trump administration, the likely overthrow of the Iranian regime, and a negotiated armistice to the Russia-Ukraine War are just a few developments with the power to upend global power dynamics. Hence our 2025 Forecast: Resetting the Global Chessboard.

2024 Year-in-Review: Ten Out of Twelve Ain’t Bad

At the start of 2024, Greymantle made 12 major predictions for the year. Ten of them turned out to be correct, an 83% success rate. The really interesting outcomes are the two we got wrong: the reelection of Donald Trump, and Bibi Netanyahu's ability to beat all odds.

No More Mr. Nice Guy: Three Possible Paths for a Second Trump Administration

In sketching out the three possible paths the incoming Trump administration could take, we must focus first on the incoming president himself. We believe Trump's attitude toward the highest office has changed. It's going to be a case of 'No More Mr. Nice Guy: three possible paths for a second Trump administration'.

Bibi’s Michael Corleone Moment

Despite being under investigation for corruption and leading a government engaged in an existential war for Israel's survival, Benjamin Netanyahu has never held a stronger hand in his 30-plus years in politics. Israel's military campaign has featured a relentless series of targeted assassinations, resembling Michael Corleone’s methodical settling of scores in the The Godfather saga. The collapse of Syria's autocratic government strengthens Bibi's hand even further. This is truly Bibi's Michael Corleone moment.