Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Insights into the Long Game

Endgame: 5 Reasons Iran’s Regime Will Fall in 2025

The Islamic Republic of Iran is nearing its endgame. After 45 years of enforced religious conformity, wars against neighbors, and the sponsoring of international terrorism against Israel and the U.S., the regime founded by Ayatollah Khomeini is on its last legs. Here is the essence of the endgame: 5 reasons Iran's regime will fall in 2025.

Taking Taiwan: Chinese Naval-Blockade Options

From Beijing’s viewpoint, an air/sea blockade has distinct advantages over a direct cross-strait, kinetic invasion. After all, the point is not to obliterate Taiwan, but to fold it neatly into China proper – of course, without its current government.If China can pull off a blockade of Taiwan without drawing a major U.S. economic and military response, it will be a stunning victory, while also shrinking U.S. prestige as protector of the Western Pacific.

Why We Write This Blog, Part Two

Forecasting events used to be something that I did casually - almost like a hobby. But years of being more right than wrong in my predictions convinced me to start this blog with a small group of collaborators. That's its purpose now - to analyse, to predict, and, hopefully, to give people a clearer view of the forces shaping our world. That's why we write this blog.

Looking for the Purple People: Prospects for a Successful U.S. Third Party

As dissatisfaction with both major parties grows, the same question keeps arising: Could a U.S. third party finally scale up into a viable national force? To succeed, a third party would need to capture about one-quarter of the U.S. electorate across more than half the states. To do that, third parties first need to identify the voter groups ready to defect from the two major parties - they need to go looking for the "purple" people.

Why We Write This Blog, Part 1

In today's post, we veer sharply away from the geopolitical to delve, if ever so briefly, into the deeply personal. Why we write this blog is a tale of a lifelong obsession with forecasts and predictions. Having been eerily correct in foreseeing several critical events, when almost no one else did, convinced us that transforming our forecasting obsession into regular, public exercise was worth a shot.

The Sentimentalist: Joe Biden and Liberalism’s Decline

Biden’s political career is a case study in the dangers of reactive sentimentality. From his early years in politics, when his personal animus toward Richard Nixon drove his political decisions, to his handling of the Bork and Thomas confirmation hearings, Biden’s political choices have been driven more by emotion than by reasoned analysis.