Twelve Predictions for the 2022 Mid-terms

The 2021 off-year elections have concluded and already every Chicken Little in the US is clucking that the Democrats are in for a historic drubbing in 2022 as if it were foreordained by the gods.

“It’s going to be 1994 all over again!” “Get ready for a repeat of 2010!” “The party that holds the White House ALWAYS loses the midterms!” “Biden’s polls numbers are tanking – we are totally screwed!”

While it is, of course, entirely conceivable that the Democrats will lose control of Congress and several governorships in 2022, it is by no means a foregone conclusion. Six months is a lifetime in politics – so goes the adage. By that standard, a year is a couple of lifetimes.

With that old adage in mind, Greymantle proposes the following framework for the 2022 election cycle. A framework – and a few modest predictions.

DEMOCRATS MUST SQUARELY FACE UP TO VOTERS’ DOUBTS

The principle problem facing Democrats in swing districts is that voters don’t really trust them.

Americans threw out the Republican Congress in 2018 and Donald Trump in 2020 because a majority of them simply could not stomach Mr. Trump. But they were voting against Trump, not for the Democrats. To vote against something is not the same as voting for something.

Democrats need to give voters in swing districts a reason to vote FOR them, rather than against Mr. Trump or his Republican allies. What is it they represent, exactly? They are the alternative…to what?

Democrats need to provide a cogent answer to this question. Perhaps that means stating definitively: “We are the party that believes in facts over fiction. Even if you hate some of our policies, please believe that we make our decisions based on fact, not fantasies.”

Perhaps it means,”I understand that we disagree about abortion and gay marriage. But we agree completely that there is an oligarchic class in this country that has accumulated too much power. We need to tax the hell out of these people and redistribute a portion of their wealth to the average Joe, and right now, or this country is in deep trouble.”

Perhaps that’s the right response.

REPUBLICANS FACE THEIR OWN HEADWINDS

Democrats and their donor base are terrified that the Biden Administration will basically own high inflation and the supply chain mess and a population suffering from ‘pandemic exhaustion’. Fair enough. The party ‘whose watch it is’ always suffers its share of voter retribution. That’s the story of recent American history.

But can’t that be turned around to some extent?

What exactly did the Republicans do with their time in power? They cut taxes. And that’s about all they did. They cut taxes and otherwise acted like they were the opposition party. Blaming the media. Blaming the opposition. But they did not provide a vision of what they were for. Only for what they were against. Is that a governing philosophy?

And here is the Big One: While in the minority in 2019-20, they enabled a President who was a member of their party (albeit belatedly) to cross the ultimate Red Line in American politics: interfering with the peaceful transfer of power between administrations.

This line was something sacred in American politics. Something that had never been crossed since George Washington, the chief founder of our nation, transferred power to his successor, John Adams, in 1797. Never crossed since John Adams transferred power to a successor from the opposition party (Thomas Jefferson) for the first time in 1801.

President Trump crossed the ultimate red line in the aftermath of the 2020 election and many in his party supported him. Shouldn’t that introduce a strain of doubt in voters’ minds?

THE BATTLEFIELD EXPLAINED

From the viewpoint of 10,000 feet above the battlefield, here is the disposition of forces:

1. Republicans hold a near-term advantage by virtue of being the party out of power. Greymantle uses the word ‘virtue’ loosely. Americans tend to have an anti-incumbent bias. It’s one of those unfortunate facts.
2. The Republican representatives and senators who pushed back on certifying the 2020 Presidential results have been placed on notice. Many big corporations have stated publicly that they will not give campaign donations to any congressman or senator who refused to certify the 2020 election results. This means that roughly 100 Republican Congressional campaigns in 2022 are going to be underfunded. Oh, and Sheldon Adelson is dead.
3. Regarding number 2, the lack of Big Donor support may not matter all that much, given that 80% of Republican House and Senate seats are in ‘Deep Red’ legislative districts created – as many “Deep Blue’ districts have also been created – through shameless gerrymandering. But it will matter on the edges, likely helping to flip a small handful of House races.
4. Democratic voters were exhausted in 2021. After indulging in a few ‘spa days’, yoga, and going on a Vegan diet, they will be in better shape for 2022. I am literally only half-kidding.
5. Democrats realize how important 2022 will be for 2024. Their base is going to be just as engaged as they were in 2018.
6. A lot of Big Money will be flowing into Democratic House and Senate races in 2022. Like donors withholding support from non-certifiers, donor largess toward the Dems will not turn the tide by itself. But it will make a difference in select House and Senate races. This will be critical.
7. Election reform efforts such as Andrew Yang’s movement to promote ranked choice voting through his new Forward Party will start to bear fruit, but will not exert sufficient influence to impact House and Senate elections. But the ‘Yang Gang’ will be placing this issue in front of voters on a regular basis starting in 2022, leading to its adoption in some local races.
8. Christine Whitman’s Call for American Renewal movement is likely to play a constructive role in a small handful of Congressional and statehouse races in 2022 by influencing 3% to 7% of Republican voters not to vote for hardcore Trumpist candidates. CARM may therefore play a constructive role in elections taking place in Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin.

TWELVE POLITICAL PREDICTIONS FOR 2022

1. Matthew McConaughey will run for Texas governor. He will lose the election, mostly because the vote will be close and Abbott’s people will be able to finesse a victory based on all kinds of technicalities (which basically amounts to tweaking the election, but staying within the letter of the law under the terms of Texas’ 2021 elections legislation).
2. The spectacle of the 2022 Texas governor’s race will embolden about 100 mini-Stacey Abrams to replicate what the original Stacey Abrams did in Georgia in 2020. Except in Texas in 2024. Observers will witness one of the greatest get-out-the-vote efforts in US history from 2022-24 in Texas.
3. Tony Evers will be re-elected governor of Wisconsin in in 2022 on the basis of higher-than-historic turnout in Dane and Milwaukee Counties. Recent moves by Wisconsin Republicans in the state legislature to take over the election process from a bipartisan board will help to clarify voters’ minds and spur high Democratic voter turnout in Madison and Milwaukee.
4. Josh Shapiro will be elected governor of Pennsylvania, but only barely and after a protracted recount process.
5. PA Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman will lose his Senatorial bid to a Trump clone in 2022. But don’t count him out of politics.
6. Kathy Hochul will be narrowly elected governor of New York.
7. Gretchen Whitmer will lose her re-election bid as governor of Michigan. Her opponent will campaign on a traditional ‘good government‘ platform.
8. By October 2020, 90% of jobs lost due to the pandemic will be filled. The jobs recovery will boost Democratic candidates in swing states.
9. Las Vegas will have a great convention season in 2022, boosting the travel & tourism sectors and Governor Steve Sisolak.
10. Republicans will re-take the US Senate on Nov. 8, 2022.
11. Democrats will keep the US House against all expectations.
12. Matthew McConaughey will run for Texas governor again in 2026 and win. But that is a different story for another year.

CURVE BALLS OF 2022

On a final note, Greymantle would caution both US political factions that 2022 is going to be a great year for curve balls. The surprises in store for us will be such as to hinder or help both side’s election prospects.

Here are four real possibilities:

• The US Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. After dithering for decades, partly to boost Republican voter turnout, conservative Justices in the majority finally decide to pull the plug on Roe. The decision drives high Democratic turnout for the mid-terms. (This event is more likely for 2023, but don’t count it out for 2022).
• A US-China military confrontation in the Taiwan Straits brings the two superpowers to the brink of open warfare. Any US military mishaps will hurt Biden. But a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis in the South China Sea will tend to help the sitting president and his party.
• A major incident of US domestic terrorism similar in kind and in scale to the Oklahoma City Bombing of 1995 takes place (God forbid, but it could). The perpetrators’ backgrounds create problems for Republicans.
• Three former US presidents pass away by natural causes. The passage of these men alters the nation’s mood and results in unexpected electoral outcomes in several states. This could mean that a Republican wins the NY governorship or that a Democrat wins re-election in Kansas or is elected in Arkansas. Either way, the pace of the shift to Blue accelerates.

Greymantle will have more predictions for you on Dec. 31.

Until then, enjoy the fall colors!

Greymantle