As befits the first day of a new solar year, and in keeping with our promises made one week ago, Greymantle is providing the following brief ‘look ahead’ to the new year 2023. I’ll keep it very short. The pithier the better.
And most predictions are soon forgotten, though we at this site will be keeping close track of each one of these auguries.
The bottom line for the coming year: don’t expect as much upheaval as occurred in 2022, but more a steady drip of less history-making events. A regime or two could fall, but the governments of China and Russia won’t be among them.
FIVE MAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 2023
- China’s economy is not about to enter a strong recovery due to the central government’s scrapping its ‘Zero Covid’ policy. With infections rising and the Chinese property market in the early stages of a severe correction, expect more bad news than good news to come out of China, economically-speaking.
- Donald Trump’s legal troubles will be among the biggest news stories in the United States. A likely Trump arrest by either state or federal authorities will spark major unrest, but no march on the capitol.
- Ukraine will make further gains in its war against Russia, but will not succeed in fully recapturing all occupied territories. The military of Ukraine will make progress in shooting down an even larger share of Russian projectiles, and the nation’s utility system will begin a move below ground as repairs proceed.
- Inflation around the globe will recede but remain high by recent standards. The US Fed will take short-term rates to 5.5% before the year’s end. Other central banks will likewise raise interest rates.
- Europe will bounce back from a steep recession in the second half of 2023, but the UK will remain on the economic skids.
Those are the big ones. Speaking very generally, high inflation and fiscal pain will result in rising social unrest around the world. The UK will see particularly bad unrest, as will parts of Latin America and the West Bank. The US will make much progress on the inflation front, but this will not prevent some measure of political unrest.
There will not be a US recession. America will avoid a downturn altogether given a strong job market, decent savings rates, steady oil prices, and all the federal American Recovery Plan Act money still to be spent.
FIVE THINGS THAT WON’T HAPPEN IN 2023
- Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, will not be overthrown. Expect to see that in 2024 or thereabouts. His control of the levers of power is too strong and elites fear what will happen without him.
- Ditto Xi Jinpeng and his coterie. They will hang tough.
- Donald Trump will not be sent to prison. No orange jump suit yet.
- Joe Biden will not announce his retirement. There will be no sign that he is prepared to bow out of the 2024 contest.
- There will not be a return to strong global economic growth.
As in all years, there will be surprises to be sure, but no big shifts in the world’s tectonic plates so soon. In other words, 2023 is going to be a real grind. A slog. A marathon, not a sprint.
But the Europeans will secure enough gas supplies for next winter by mid summer and many major world economies will begin to slowly stabilize and crawl their way out of adverse conditions. The Ethiopian-Tigray Truce will hold. Nigeria will avoid major election-related violence. Greymantle bets that Turkey’s Erdogan will win a squeaker of an election.
Buckle in. Sit tight. Have a good year!
All the best,
Greymantle
