Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Insights into the Long Game

The RSF Comes for Khartoum: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 3

Robert Cox

Sudanese leaders had gradually beefed up the rag-tag Janjaweed militia, transforming what had begun as groups of semi-organized raiders on horseback into the RSF - a fully equipped adjunct to the Sudanese military. But after decades of expanding its operational capabilities, the RSF decided it wanted to be more than the tail that wags the dog. In 2023, the RSF launched an all-out bid for power that plunged Sudan into its third civil war. We explain what happened, and why, in "The RSF Comes for Khartoum".

Devils on Horseback: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 2

Robert Cox

Sudan showed signs of fissure from the start. Those in the South were afraid of being handed over to people who for years had done little but try to enslave them. As if to confirm their suspicions, only 8 out of 800 government positions during the 1956 independence negotiations were reserved for southerners. If our goal is understanding Sudan's genocidal civil wars, then the profound disconnect between an Arab, Muslim North and a Christian/Animist and African South can't be overemphasized.

Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 1

Robert Cox

As recently as the early 1980s, Sudan seemed to have everything going for it as far as a Third World country was concerned. Its assets included a favorable location for international trade, regional allies, a well-educated elite, and the promise of oil revenue. What went wrong? This three part series: "Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan's Genocidal Civil Wars" is an attempt to explain the causes of Sudan's present catastrophes.

No Good Options 2: Seizing the Strait Islands – For What End?

Richard Jupa

This article examines several possible U.S. military objectives in the Strait of Hormuz, including a seizure of Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island and the potential capture of other strategic islands controlling the Strait. Each option carries serious risks, uncertain strategic benefits, and the chance of triggering wider economic and military chaos across the Gulf region. Hence our title, "No Good Options 2". as we continue last week's analysis.

No Good Options: Prospects for a U.S. Ground Invasion of Iran

Alexander Stavropoulos

There are inevitable trade-offs to be considered in every operational plan and in every war. The troubling fact about a potential U.S. invasion of Iran's coastline is that the trade-offs all seem to skew sharply negative after the initial landing has been achieved. For American military planners, there may truly be no good options for operationalizing a U.S. invasion of Iran.

The Method to Their Madness: Trump, Rubio and America’s Lightning Wars

Ivor Greymantle

The geostrategic thinking of President Trump's inner circle revolves around a stark premise: the U.S. is entering a period of geopolitical rivalry that will culminate in a military confrontation with China. Since that confrontation is coming quickly, Washington cannot afford to remain entangled in a half-dozen smaller regional conflicts. Their solution is brutally simple: Before the larger struggle begins, the U.S. should neutralize as many secondary adversaries as possible.