Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Insights into the Long Game

What Does Humble Pie Taste Like? Why the Iranian Regime Defied My Forecast of Collapse

Ivor Greymantle

Back in March, I made a very bullish forecast that Iran's regime would collapse with 98% certainty for myriad reasons, the U.S.-Israeli attacks being the most proximate. But I was dead wrong. In this post, I analyze the gaps and mistakes made in my earlier forecast. What does humble pie taste like? Read on and I'll tell you.

Beating A Dead Horse: How Hollywood’s IP Obsession Got Out of Hand

Gideon Evans

Since the early 2000s, sequels and franchises have dominated the U.S. box office, squeezing out original content and stories not grounded in pre-existing intellectual property, or "IP" as it is commonly referred to in the film industry. In this week's article, producer and comedy writer Gideon Evans analyzes why and "How Hollywood's IP Obsession Got Out of Hand".

The RSF Comes for Khartoum: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 3

Robert Cox

Sudan's leaders beefed up the rag-tag Janjaweed militia, transforming what had been a group of semi-organized raiders into the RSF - a fully equipped adjunct to the Sudanese military. But after decades of expanding its operational capabilities, the RSF decided it wanted to be more than the tail that wags the dog. In 2023, it launched an all-out bid for power. We explain what happened, and why, in "The RSF Comes for Khartoum".

Devils on Horseback: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 2

Robert Cox

Sudan showed signs of fissure from the start. Those in the South were afraid of being handed over to people who for years had done little but try to enslave them. As if to confirm their suspicions, only 8 out of 800 government positions during the 1956 independence negotiations were reserved for southerners. If our goal is understanding Sudan's genocidal civil wars, then the profound disconnect between an Arab, Muslim North and a Christian/Animist and African South can't be overemphasized.

Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan’s Genocidal Civil Wars, Part 1

Robert Cox

As recently as the early 1980s, Sudan seemed to have everything going for it for a Third World country. Its assets included a favorable location for international trade, regional allies, a well-educated elite, and the promise of oil revenue. What went wrong? This three part series: "Broken from the Beginning: Understanding Sudan's Genocidal Civil Wars" dissects the root causes of Sudan's present catastrophes.

No Good Options 2: Seizing the Strait Islands – For What End?

Richard Jupa

This article examines several possible U.S. military objectives in the Strait of Hormuz, including a seizure of Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island and the potential capture of other strategic islands controlling the Strait. Each option carries serious risks, uncertain strategic benefits, and the chance of triggering wider economic and military chaos across the Gulf region. Hence our title, "No Good Options 2". as we continue last week's analysis.