Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Insights into the Long Game

Greymantle's Politics And Culture

This Dog Is Barking, Part 2: The Stakes Beyond the 2026 Midterms

Ivor Greymantle

Ivor Greymantle
October 31, 2026

Four possible midterm outcomes carry sharply different implications for the Trump administration and the country. The greatest institutional risk may arise if Democrats win Congress narrowly and Trump challenges the legitimacy of politically important races. We examine the stakes beyond the 2026 midterms.

This Dog Is Barking, Part 1: Forecasting the 2026 Midterm Elections – The Battle for Congress

Ivor Greymantle

Ivor Greymantle
October 25, 2026

When we reviewed Trump 2.0's first year in office in January 2026, we concluded that Trump was attempting to follow the Orban model of "illiberal democracy" used in Hungary. But Trump had not yet shown an inclination to 'federalize' U.S. election administration, which we referred to as "the dog that hasn't barked yet". Well, this dog is barking. Since March, the Trump administration has taken direct actions to influence the 2026 midterms in Trump's favor. Greymantle believes these attempts will fall short of the mark.

Tehran in the Sahel: Iran’s African Shadow Empire

Ivor Greymantle

Ivor Greymantle
October 11, 2026

When empires retreat, they don’t always collapse. The ashes of defeat in one theater of combat can become the soil for reinvention in another. So it is with Iran. The Islamic Republic's deepening involvement in the Sahel, Africa's lawless midriff, is one such example of strategic migration. Tehran in the Sahel is an extension of Iran's desire to find room to maneuver, to hide, and to rebuild.

Is the AI Battle in Hollywood Already Lost?

Dave Oates

Dave Oates
October 4, 2026

Three years after a seismic months-long strike by the U.S. screen actors' and writers' guilds sparked by fears of AI eliminating thousands of film industry jobs, the impact of AI on the industry appears manageable on the surface. But a lack of tangible progress on forging new AI regulation at the state and federal levels has some industry insiders asking: "Is the AI battle in Hollywood already lost?"

Good Guys Wear Black, Part 3: How America Learned to Love the Bad Guys

Ivor Greymantle

Ivor Greymantle
September 27, 2026

If the New Hollywood of the 1970s opened the door to morally ambiguous heroes, 21st century prestige television ripped that door off its hinges. A rapid evolution towards darker protagonists of the inverted hero type explains much about how America learned to love the bad guys.

Good Guys Wear Black, Part 2: From Tragic Antiheroes to Inverted Heroes

Ivor Greymantle

Ivor Greymantle
September 20, 2026

The 21st century American film protagonist doesn’t need to be decent. He or she needs only to be effective. The assassin earns admiration because she is the finest assassin in the world. The criminal mastermind commands respect because he outwits everyone around him. This paradox defines the shift from tragic antiheroes to inverted heroes in film since the late 1990s.