For decades, American politics has been dominated by the binary voting choice of Democrat or Republican. Third parties have come and gone, usually fading into irrelevance quickly, or else serving as spoilers rather than credible challengers. Yet, as polarization deepens and dissatisfaction with both major parties grows, the same question keeps arising: Could a U.S. third party finally scale up into a viable national force?
To succeed, a third party would need to consistently capture about one-quarter of the U.S. electorate across more than half the states—a tall order in a system designed to reinforce two-party dominance. But certain demographic groups may be primed for such a shift, if the right kind of political movement can fire up their imaginations, win their trust, and capture their allegiance.
To accomplish that, new third parties first need to identify the critical voter groups that are ready to defect from the two major parties. If the Democrats and Republicans are the “blue” and the “red” parties, respectively, then third parties need to go looking for the purple people.
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES FOR THIRD PARTIES
The American electoral system is built to resist third-party insurgencies. First-past-the-post voting, state ballot access restrictions, media gatekeeping, Federal Election Commission rules and Commission on Presidential Debates interference, and the sheer gravitational pull – in social terms – of the two major parties have kept third-party efforts at the margins of U.S. political life since at least the 1940s.
The last third-party candidate to make serious national waves was Ross Perot in 1992 when he captured 19% of the popular vote in his independent presidential run. Perot’s movement faded after his personal withdrawal from politics, however, following two presidential bids in 1992 and 1996. Perot’s second bid was made under the aegis of the Reform Party, which Perot had founded (and briefly heavily funded) in 1995.
The Reform Party remains an active, if marginal, political force, as it struggled to gain traction after Perot retired from active campaigning in the late 1990s to focus on his political action committee (PAC), United We Stand America. The Reform Party scored some noteworthy state-level electoral victories in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but since 2004 Reform has faded to the margins due to fierce infighting among party factions.
More recently, strong efforts by the Green and Libertarian parties have struggled to sustain momentum beyond one or two election cycles. More importantly, their candidates have not succeeded in winning notable statewide or national offices. The occasionally victorious Green or Libertarian officeholder tends to find a ceiling of support by serving in a state legislature or in local roles — such as being small city mayor — without breaking through to higher offices like state governor or federal senator.
In the 2020s, however, the Forward Party, launched by a coalition of frustrated Democratic and Republican officials and one-time candidates such as Andrew Yang and Evan McMullin, and the No Labels movement are attempting to change that calculus. Both new parties seek to offer a home for disaffected moderates and independents who feel politically homeless in an era of partisan extremism.
IDENTIFYING THE “PURPLE PEOPLE”
If a successful third party – or parties — are to take root, they must form new electoral coalitions that demonstrate not only coherent policy preferences but the ability to prove their viability across diverse regions of the country. The most promising base includes voters who crave compromise and pragmatism, rather than ideological purity. The following groups stand out as potential building blocks for viable third-party movements:
1. Disaffected Moderates and Independents
Independents now make up roughly 40% of the American electorate, but most still lean toward one of the two major parties. The key challenge is to carve out a space where genuine moderates—those who reject the hard-left progressivism of the Democrats and the hard-right populist-nationalism of the Republicans—can feel represented.
Disaffected moderates must also believe that their votes will count following an election. In other words, for a third party to win the loyalty of disaffected moderates and longtime independents, it must show that it has a viable ground game, an appealing platform, and a plan for the day after the election. For a third party to be potentially viable, it must first demonstrate that it can secure sufficient political power to influence policy at the state and national level.
The Forward Party, with its emphasis on ranked choice voting and other political reforms, has sought to appeal to these voters, as well as to disaffected conservatives.
2. Libertarian-Leaning Conservatives
Many small-government conservatives feel alienated by the Republican Party’s shift toward economic nationalism, protectionism, cultural grievance politics, and authoritarian rhetoric since 2016. Voters in these demographics tend to practice a kind of ‘Yankee conservatism’ or ‘frontier conservatism’ that emphasizes balanced budgets, fiscal conservatism, gun rights, and free trade, but with less cultural baggage and less interest in protectionist economic policies and unilateral military action than the GOP.
Given these policy preferences, it is unsurprising that recent Libertarian Party presidential candidates including Gary Johnson (Arizona), William Weld (Massachusetts) and elected officeholders such as Brandon Phinney (New Hampshire) and Aubrey Dunn Jr. (New Mexico) have hailed from New England and the southwest. If a new center-right party were to form in alternative to the ‘Trumpified’ Republican Party, it might find an initial home in these regions, particularly if it could attract disaffected Libertarian Party members.
It remains to be seen, however, whether enough of these types of voters would be willing defect from the GOP and Libertarians – their natural homes since the early 1970s – or come off the electoral sidelines if they are presently unaffiliated, to win high profile races for governorships, state attorneys general, and Congress under a new banner.
Libertarian-leaning conservatives would have to be willing defect at the ballot box in large numbers, along with a smattering of disaffected independents, to support a viable new center-right part. Alternatively, they could defect to either No Labels or the Reform Party – provided these parties shifted their policy stances rightward. The near-term prospects for such a breakthrough appear low, but if the protectionist policies of the new administration leads to economic problems at home, then principled defections may be possible.
3. Non-Voters and the Politically Disengaged
Millions of Americans don’t vote—not because they don’t care, but because they feel unrepresented and unheard. If a third party can break through the perception that “all politicians are the same” and provide a credible alternative, it could activate this sizeable untapped electorate.
In recent election cycles, President Trump has succeeded at mobilizing large numbers of the politically disengaged to support him and his MAGA movement. He has done so by behaving unlike a ‘normal’ politician – by instead being outrageous and unconventional. Trump has also advocated a mix of policies that are less ideological than traditional Democrats and Republicans, and which are designed partly to appeal to politically disengaged and less informed voters.
The long-term question is whether the politically disengaged will stay loyal to MAGA and the Trump-influenced Republican Party once Trump has left the scene. Greymantle believes Trump’s unique blend of charisma, business acumen and celebrity power, combined with his unconventional policy mix, are what has attracted politically disengaged voters to the Republicans. Without all these factors in constant play, we expect the politically disengaged to quickly retreat into non-voter territory.
A political leader or movement who heeds the lessons of Trump’s approach, however, might be able to pick up a sizable chunk of this group of voters and draw them in to a fresh political party.
4. Oprah Winfrey Voters
This group—often suburban, college-educated, and culturally liberal but skeptical of progressive dogma—responds to optimistic, unifying messaging. They value competence, personal empowerment, and bipartisan problem-solving over ideological warfare. The appeal of figures like Oprah Winfrey and Michelle Obama highlights the existence of a constituency that is politically engaged but turned off by partisan tribalism.
This group of voters tend to be registered Democrats or have supported the Democratic Party in the past but have become disillusioned by many aspects of contemporary progressivism and the hold that ‘wokism’ exerts on the Democrats. A third party that is socially liberal and environmentally conscious, but less stridently ‘woke’ and interventionist than the Democrats would be a natural home for this group of voters.
For these left-leaning voters to defect to a new party, the power struggle now brewing within the Democratic ranks between moderates and progressives would have to be decided in favor of the progressive faction. If woke progressives come to dominate the Democratic Party completely in the coming decade, then the Oprah Winfrey faction of voters could likely be persuaded to defect to the Forward Party or a similar grouping.
5. New Age Voters (aka ‘Marianne Williamson voters’)
Overlapping with Oprah voters, New Age vogers drawn to holistic thinking, environmental consciousness, and nontraditional spirituality. They may be skeptical of both corporate-driven politics and the bureaucratic rigidity and confrontational ethos that characterizes left progressivism in its current form. A party emphasizing innovation, climate solutions, and many of the same political reforms advocated by the Forward Party and No Labels could potentially capture their support.
The most notable standard-bearer representing this political tendency during the 2020 election cycle (and for some time before) was the New Age author Marianne Williamson, who ran for U.S. president in the Democratic primaries of 2020.
In the early 2000s, John Hagelin and the Natural Law Party were prominent standard-bearers of this political tendency. Their brief involvement and short-lived fusion with the Reform Party during the 2000 presidential campaign suggest future avenues of connection between the New Age group and disaffected moderates and independents.
In 2024, the most visible tribune for New Age voters was Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy’s cooption by Donald Trump during the 2024 presidential race brought Kennedy and, presumably, many of these voters into the MAGA camp, at least for the time being. The question now is whether the voters who switched from Independent, Green, or Democratic to support Trump because of Kennedy’s endorsement will remain within the MAGA fold.
Greymantle finds it doubtful that New Agers will remain within MAGA for long and are likely to be among the first groups of voters to defect from the GOP – or at least MAGA – when Trump finally retires from politics. At that point, we believe the New Age voters will either return to the sidelines, or, for one brief and tantalizing moment, be ‘up for grabs’ for a new party or charismatic leader willing to engage with them on their terms.
THE PATH TO CREDIBILITY
Even with these potential constituencies, a third party faces a difficult road to legitimacy. To gain traction, it will need to focus on the following strategic imperatives:
- State-Level Power First: Rather than trying to win the presidency outright, a third party should aim to win governorships, Senate seats, and seats in state legislatures, building a durable foundation over multiple election cycles. Winning the presidency isn’t the key to durability – building a credible multi-state ground game is.
- A Core Set of Unifying Issues: Electoral reform (ranked-choice voting, open primaries), fiscal responsibility, climate innovation, and a foreign policy rooted in pragmatism rather than ideology could serve as binding principles.
- Flexibility in Setting Policy: Because independent voters turned off by the rigid orthodoxy of the two main parties, a third party that rallies around a core set of issues, but remains flexible on the policy options it embraces in order to realize its policies will keep the loyalty of its new base.
- Breaking into Swing States: States like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are ripe for third-party inroads due to their large independent voter populations and dissatisfaction with both parties.
CAN THE FORWARD PARTY OR NO LABELS FILL THE VOID?
The Forward Party, founded by Andrew Yang in 2021, is explicitly trying to build a centrist coalition that rejects political extremes. It promotes ranked-choice voting, nonpartisan primaries, and pragmatic governance, but it has struggled to define a clear ideological identity beyond these procedural reforms.
Meanwhile, No Labels is positioning itself as a bipartisan movement that could field a unity ticket in 2028, though its reluctance to form a full-fledged party structure limits its viability. Both movements highlight millions of Americans’ heartfelt demand for a new political home beyond the two major parties, but neither has yet demonstrated the ability to lock in the one-quarter of the electorate needed for sustainable growth.
Of the two new movements, the Forward Party has been making the more rapid progress in obtaining nationwide ballot access and bringing a small number of elected officials into the party as explicitly ‘Forwardist’ candidates and officeholders.
Local Forward parties are successfully organizing in most of the 50 states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, South Carolina and Utah are notable for having active Forward Parties. These local affiliates have held state-level Forward Party conventions in 2023 and 2024 to strategize, build out party platforms, and raise voter awareness of the Forward Party in their states.
At the national level, the Forward Party adroitly chose to participate in the Independent National Convention held in Denver on Sept. 17-19, 2024, as an alternative to the two major party conventions. Forwardists such as Andrew Yang held prominent speaking slots but did not dominate the convention. This was probably intentional, as Forward aims to seduce, rather than intimidate, voters and political professionals.
Greymantle notes that the speakers at the Independent National Convention included representatives of all the ‘purple’ voter groups noted in this post. There was a smattering of libertarians, several speakers focused on the environment, personal health and mental wellbeing, some staff members from the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. campaign that had already moved to back Trump, and Marianne Williamson herself.
By mixing with this broad cross-section of disaffected voters, the Forwardists are keeping good company and keeping their options open for the future.
No Labels has been far less active at fielding candidates and building out a nationwide electoral ground game. Positively, No Labels decided collectively in early 2024 not to field a U.S. presidential candidate, believing that the presidential race would only serve as a distraction and convince persuadable voters that No Labels weren’t serious. It remains to be seen whether No Labels will copy the Forward Party’s organizational approach, or ultimately fuse with the Forward movement over time.
CONCLUSION: LOOKING FOR THE PURPLE PEOPLE
The American political landscape is in a state of flux. While the two-party system remains deeply entrenched, demand for a credible third option (or multiple third options) has never been higher. The challenge is not just finding disaffected voters but forging a movement that can unite them under a coherent and sustainable political banner.
If such a party is to emerge, it will need to find the Purple People—the voters who are not just rejecting red or blue but actively seeking something new. Whether the Forward Party, No Labels, or some future iteration of centrist politics can rise to meet this challenge remains an open question.
Until next time, I remain —
Greymantle
