Recent Posts - Greymantle's Politics and Culture

Putin Under Pressure: Why A Ukrainian Armistice May Not Be Enough to Save Vladimir Putin

Ivor Greymantle March 30, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been adept at navigating crises both foreign and domestic, but Russia’s three-year war against Ukraine and its domestic fallout are testing his ability to manage Russia’s internal factions like never before. The difference between prior periods of internal unrest and Putin’s present challenges lie in the pain felt by ordinary Russians and the multiple sources of pressure weighing on the Kremlin’s elite factions, all of which Putin must manage.

Sir James Goldsmith: Populism’s Unlikely Prophet

Ivor Greymantle March 18, 2025

Sir James Goldsmith was many things: a financier, a corporate raider, a political agitator, and—perhaps most importantly—a thinker ahead of his time. In the 1970s and 1980s, he made a name for himself as a bold and often ruthless investor, orchestrating high-profile takeovers and amassing a fortune in the process. But by the 1990s, Goldsmith had shifted his focus away from wealth accumulation to something he saw as far more consequential: warning of the dangers of globalization and a coming populist revolt.

Columbia’s Student Radicals: 1968 vs. 2024: Will the Protests Matter This Time?

Robert Cox March 9, 2025

Student radicalism at Columbia University has a storied history going back to 1968, when a massive student uprising shut down the college. Despite the media frenzy connected with today’s student radicals, the 2024 protests were smaller and far less disruptive than those of 1968. But given a broader and more committed core of student activists this time, could the longer-term effects potentially be greater?

Endgame: 5 Reasons Iran’s Regime Will Fall in 2025

Ivor Greymantle February 28, 2025

The Islamic Republic of Iran is nearing its endgame. After 45 years of enforced religious conformity, wars against neighbors, and the sponsoring of international terrorism against Israel and the U.S., the regime founded by Ayatollah Khomeini is on its last legs. Here is the essence of the endgame: 5 reasons Iran’s regime will fall in 2025.

Taking Taiwan: Chinese Naval-Blockade Options

Richard Jupa February 24, 2025

From Beijing’s viewpoint, an air/sea blockade has distinct advantages over a direct cross-strait, kinetic invasion. After all, the point is not to obliterate Taiwan, but to fold it neatly into China proper – of course, without its current government.If China can pull off a blockade of Taiwan without drawing a major U.S. economic and military response, it will be a stunning victory, while also shrinking U.S. prestige as protector of the Western Pacific.

Why We Write This Blog, Part Two

Ivor Greymantle February 14, 2025

Forecasting events used to be something that I did casually – almost like a hobby. But years of being more right than wrong in my predictions convinced me to start this blog with a small group of collaborators. That’s its purpose now – to analyse, to predict, and, hopefully, to give people a clearer view of the forces shaping our world. That’s why we write this blog.

Looking for the Purple People: Prospects for a Successful U.S. Third Party

Ivor Greymantle February 2, 2025

As dissatisfaction with both major parties grows, the same question keeps arising: Could a U.S. third party finally scale up into a viable national force? To succeed, a third party would need to capture about one-quarter of the U.S. electorate across more than half the states. To do that, third parties first need to identify the voter groups ready to defect from the two major parties – they need to go looking for the “purple” people.

Why We Write This Blog, Part 1

Ivor Greymantle January 28, 2025

In today’s post, we veer sharply away from the geopolitical to delve, if ever so briefly, into the deeply personal. Why we write this blog is a tale of a lifelong obsession with forecasts and predictions. Having been eerily correct in foreseeing several critical events, when almost no one else did, convinced us that transforming our forecasting obsession into regular, public exercise was worth a shot.

The Sentimentalist: Joe Biden and Liberalism’s Decline

Ivor Greymantle January 18, 2025

Biden’s political career is a case study in the dangers of reactive sentimentality. From his early years in politics, when his personal animus toward Richard Nixon drove his political decisions, to his handling of the Bork and Thomas confirmation hearings, Biden’s political choices have been driven more by emotion than by reasoned analysis.

2025 Forecast: Resetting the Global Chessboard

Ivor Greymantle January 3, 2025

As we enter 2025, the global landscape is poised for a number of transformative events. The beginning of an economic bubble in the U.S. under the second Trump administration, the likely overthrow of the Iranian regime, and a negotiated armistice to the Russia-Ukraine War are just a few developments with the power to upend global power dynamics. Hence our 2025 Forecast: Resetting the Global Chessboard.

2024 Year-in-Review: Ten Out of Twelve Ain’t Bad

Ivor Greymantle December 29, 2024

At the start of 2024, Greymantle made 12 major predictions for the year. Ten of them turned out to be correct, an 83% success rate. The really interesting outcomes are the two we got wrong: the reelection of Donald Trump, and Bibi Netanyahu’s ability to beat all odds.

No More Mr. Nice Guy: Three Possible Paths for a Second Trump Administration

Ivor Greymantle December 22, 2024

In sketching out the three possible paths the incoming Trump administration could take, we must focus first on the incoming president himself. We believe Trump’s attitude toward the highest office has changed. It’s going to be a case of ‘No More Mr. Nice Guy: three possible paths for a second Trump administration’.

Bibi’s Michael Corleone Moment

Ivor Greymantle December 9, 2024

Despite being under investigation for corruption and leading a government engaged in an existential war for Israel’s survival, Benjamin Netanyahu has never held a stronger hand in his 30-plus years in politics. Israel’s military campaign has featured a relentless series of targeted assassinations, resembling Michael Corleone’s methodical settling of scores in the The Godfather saga. The collapse of Syria’s autocratic government strengthens Bibi’s hand even further. This is truly Bibi’s Michael Corleone moment.

Is China’s Navy Ready for ‘Blue Water’?

Richard Jupa November 20, 2024

For decades, Americans have believed their nation boasts the largest navy on earth and that it dominates the world’s seas. Half of that belief is no longer valid, and the other half may now be debatable. The big question is: Is China’s navy ready for ‘blue water’?

The Seven Reasons Donald Trump Won the 2024 Election

Ivor Greymantle November 16, 2024

Elections are decided not only by the mistakes made by the losing candidate, but by the strategically shrewd decisions made by the winning candidate.

Donald Trump’s advisors made several astute calls that helped to neutralize Trump’s weaknesses as a candidate, but it was Trump’s own resilience, relentlessness, and refusal to back down above all else that cemented his victory.

The Seven Reasons Kamala Harris Lost the 2024 Election

Ivor Greymantle November 11, 2024

The dust of the November 5 election is still settling, but based on what we know, seven reasons stand out for why Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election. A mood of anti-incumbency, a late start to the campaign, and Harris’s failure to connect with voters are the top three.

The Five Reasons Kamala Harris Will Win the 2024 Election

Ivor Greymantle November 4, 2024

Greymantle anticipates that a Harris victory will be supported by five key trends playing out in the swing states: lingering female anger over Roe v. Wade’s overturning, the unreliability of young male voters, Trump’s refusal to triangulate and tone down his rhetoric, and fewer senior citizen supporters than in 2020.

Lord of Illusions: Donald Trump as Master Magician

Ivor Greymantle November 3, 2024

In this fourth and final post covering the four major-party candidates for President and VP in the 2024 U.S. election, we are going to frame Donald Trump’s candidacy in an unusual way: as the performance of a master magician. A magician, in the sense that Trump resembles, more than anything else, an extraordinarily effective stage or ceremonial magician.

The Coach: Tim Walz and the Risks of ‘Common Man Progressivism’

Ivor Greymantle October 21, 2024

Tim Walz has the right background for a national office seeker. He served in the National Guard, was a high school teacher and coach, and is Governor of Minnesota. He also has a down to earth manner of speaking that should be connecting with voters. The question is: Does any of this matter in a toxic political environment? Hence our title – The Coach: Tim Walz and the Risks of ‘Common Man Progressivism’.

How to Lose a Debate with a Populist in Five Easy Steps

Ivor Greymantle October 7, 2024

There is no doubt that Tim Walz lost Tuesday night’s debate against his GOP opponent, J.D. Vance. Walz stumbled badly as the result of not understanding the nature of American populism. The people are fed up with the ‘expert class’ and tired of receiving evasive answers in response to simple and direct questions.

The Climber: J.D. Vance and the Slippery Pole of Social Ascendancy

Ivor Greymantle September 23, 2024

J.D. Vance’s rise from Appalachian poverty to the heights of U.S. politics is a testament to the complexity of his personal journey and the ambition that has characterized his adult life. The calculated moves Vance has made since he left Yale Law School behind reveal a more defining characteristic: a relentless drive to climb the social ladder, at all costs. Hence our title – The Climber: J.D. Vance and the Slippery Pole of Social Ascendancy.

The Contender: Can Kamala Harris Seal the Deal?

Ivor Greymantle September 15, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris and her campaign stand at a dramatic crossroads. Her candidacy represents a dramatic shift in style for the Democratic Party compared to that of outgoing President Joe Biden, offering a bridge to undecided and independent voters, whose support for Biden was wavering.

The key question is: Can Harris secure the necessary support to swing the general election to the Democrats?

2024 Mid-Year Review: Expect More Turbulence Ahead After Early Summer Shocks

Ivor Greymantle August 11, 2024

Through early August, 2024 is behaving true to form. The seismic electoral shifts we had anticipated in January for the EU have occurred right on schedule, and global markets have been volatile. It is the U.S. election, however, that continues to throw off the biggest shocks and upsets, not all of them surprising to this newsletter. Fasten your seatbelts. More turbulence is just ahead.

The Last Hurrah: Why Joe Biden Should be Romping to Victory In the 2024 Election, But Isn’t

Ivor Greymantle July 15, 2024

In a more normal time and a more normal country, Joe Biden would be coasting to reelection despite the fact of his advanced age. But America is no longer a normal country, and Donald Trump possesses critical advantages and Biden key weaknesses that are shifting the momentum of the election inexorably toward a Trump victory.

2024 U.S. Election Update: Thinking…the Unthinkable?

Ivor Greymantle June 11, 2024

President Biden’s popular standing is far weaker than it should be after a mostly good 2023, economically and socially, and a successful first term. The chances of an election loss to Donald Trump have increased, but the situation remains salvageable for the Dems.

Exploring the Ethical Dilemmas of AI-Generated Deepfake Content

Ivor Greymantle May 2, 2024

The recent surge of AI-generated deepfake content has sparked profound ethical debates. This post aims to dissect the intricate web of ethical dilemmas surrounding deepfakes, delving into their potential consequences. To tickle our readers, we will admit at the outset that this post was largely written by an AI.

Not What Sakharov Predicted: The Strange Convergence of the World’s Great Powers

Ivor Greymantle April 28, 2024

In 1968, Soviet dissident and world renowned physicist Andrei Sakharov advocated for a gradual convergence of the US and Soviet economies, and an end to the Cold War. His essay became widely known as the ‘convergence essay’. What has happened in the years that followed is much stranger: a growing convergence of US and Russian political technologies and styles that Sakharov would have found most ominous.

How the Two Party System (Mis)Shapes Reality

Ivor Greymantle March 24, 2024

America’s two party system has distorted social reality for decades, providing a set of binary, zero sum choices that distorts the range of options available to political actors. It’s time to scrap the old two-party system and replace it with a multi-party system.

The Diet of Illusion and the Rule of Fantasy

Ivor Greymantle February 22, 2024

An innate human hunger for fancy and diversion is generating vast quantities of digital entertainment and real-world imitation focused on the the trivial, the strange and the fantastic. From online avatars to cosplay, a diet of illusion marked by consumption of opinion over facts, fantasy over reality-based narratives and images over words provides mental and emotional sustenance for millions of Americans.

What It Will Mean if Nikki Haley, Against All Odds, Wins the GOP Nomination

Ivor Greymantle January 14, 2024

Nikki Haley’s chance of securing the 2024 GOP presidential nomination was always going to be a long shot. If she somehow prevails against all odds, it will be because female voters now hold the balance of power in U.S. elections.

2024 Forecast: It’s Going to Be A Bumpy (And Scary) Ride

Ivor Greymantle January 7, 2024

2024 is going to be a rollercoaster of a year. We predict that Donald Trump will lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election and that China will not invade Taiwan. We’re more confident of the second prediction than the first. It’s going to be a nail-biter. But don’t believe the polls…

2023 Year-in-Review: Slaves to ‘The Grind’

Ivor Greymantle December 29, 2023

On Jan. 1, 2023, this site made five bold predictions for 2023. All five have come to pass. China’s economy has badly underperformed expectations, Donald Trump’s legal woes have not generated major unrest. Read the full article to learn how the last three shook out, and how we were all ‘slaves to the grind’ in 2023.

The Gaza War: An Elemental Contest of Wills

Ivor Greymantle November 30, 2023

The Israeli-Hamas War now entering its seventh week is quickly evolving into human warfare reduced to its most primordial: an elemental contest of wills between two combatants, in which only one can claim victory and the other is likely to perish.

The Darkest Hour is Just Before the Dawn

Ivor Greymantle October 31, 2023

A quarter century of national disasters and global upheaval has both the U.S. and the wider world on edge. The prevailing mood is a kind of fatalism, lately made worse by the Israel-Hamas conflict. It might behoove us to take a step back to acknowledge that not all recent trends have been bad. The forces of darkness (e.g. Putin’s crew, the Iranian regime) have lately suffered some setbacks of their own. It’s way too early for fatalism.

Conservative Dissenters and the New Social Majority

Ivor Greymantle September 30, 2023

The ground has shifted under American social conservatives since 2000, with support for gay marriage and drug legalization rising. Who are they now? And where do they go from here?

American Conservatism is Dead

Ivor Greymantle August 30, 2023

It’s official. American conservatism is as dead as a coffin nail. One of America’s two major political parties now lacks a governing philosophy. What killed conservatism? It wasn’t Donald Trump. It was fear.

Don’t Place Your Bets on ‘Trump 2.0’

Ivor Greymantle July 30, 2023

The Trump phenomenon has never been a rational one. Which is why I believe, all things considered, that Trump will be defeated by a combination of both rational and irrational forces aligned against him.

11 Million Marriage Treaties

Ivor Greymantle June 19, 2023

The rise of mixed-race marriages in the United States since 1980 is epochal in its social implications. Biracial marriages are accelerating the pace of social tolerance and cementing a series of new social alliances.

All Failures Are Failures of the Imagination, Part 2

Ivor Greymantle May 1, 2023

Good evening, dear readers! Greymantle is back at it again after a five-week absence. Once again, let me offer my apologies for the lengthy gap

All Failures Are Failures of the Imagination, Part 1

Ivor Greymantle March 19, 2023

Recent events such as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the Russian military’s continued failure to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut have been leading me to think more broadly about the nature of failure. The strange thing about failure is that it happens to people and organizations who have long track records of success before they fail spectacularly. Greymantle believes these failures have a common cause: a failure of the imagination.

The Great Fictitious Recession of 2023

Ivor Greymantle February 20, 2023

January is typically a slow month, economically-speaking. After the December holidays, consumers tend to retrench, limiting their spending and paying down credit card balances. Car

January 2023 Update: More Breaks in the Clouds

Ivor Greymantle January 30, 2023

Thanks to a mild northern hemisphere winter, natural gas and other fuel prices have dropped significantly, particularly in Europe, and a spike in European social unrest feared by many last autumn has failed to materialize, with the UK being a notable exception.

2023 Look Ahead: Get Ready for ‘The Grind’

Ivor Greymantle January 2, 2023

As befits the first day of a new solar year, and in keeping with our promises made one week ago, Greymantle is providing the following brief ‘look ahead’ to the new year 2023.The bottom line for the coming year: don’t expect as much upheaval as occurred in 2022, but more a steady drip of less history-making events.

Annus Horribilis. Annus Mirabilis: 2022 in Review

Ivor Greymantle December 31, 2022

2022 will go down in history as a major turning point in world events.

Fumbling the ‘Race and Rings’ Controversy: The Strange Case of Ross Douthat

Ivor Greymantle December 28, 2022

J.R.R. Tolkien would be most pleased with the new Amazon Prime TV series based on his books. Conservative commentators such as Ross Douthat have completely missed the mark in their criticism of the series.

The Coming Democratic Landslide of 2024

Ivor Greymantle December 8, 2022

resident Biden is on track to be reelected in a 2024 Democratic Party landslide.

Greymantle Takes a Bow as Dems Sweep 2022 Midterms

Ivor Greymantle November 13, 2022

When most forecasters predicted a Democratic midterm defeat for 2022, this site called the result correctly last December.

Never So Happy to Be Wrong

Ivor Greymantle November 3, 2022

Russia decided not to nuke Ukraine last month. Thank God! We have never been so happy to be wrong about one of our forecasts.

The Greatest (and Most Expensive) Fan Film Ever Made

Ivor Greymantle October 30, 2022

Amazon Prime’s ‘Rings of Power” series has re-written the rulebook for prestige television

2022: Five Vindications, Five Predictions

Ivor Greymantle October 3, 2022

The biggest and scariest event of 2022 is about to happen: the use of a battlefield nuke by Russia.

Constitutional Democracy Versus the ‘Rights Revolution’

Ivor Greymantle June 20, 2022

There is nothing to say that rights can’t be subject to revision or repeal.

That Old Irish Temper

Ivor Greymantle March 28, 2022

Biden’s history of making misstatements comes back to haunt him.

This Situation Isn’t Sustainable

Ivor Greymantle March 16, 2022

NATO’s arming of Ukraine can only be a short-term expedient. Within months or even weeks, NATO must pivot to a more sustainable strategy.

Fool of the Hour

Ivor Greymantle March 13, 2022

Last week. Senator Lindsey Graham essentially shouted “fire” in a crowded nuclear theatre. Let’s hope Vladimir Putin wasn’t listening.

Thank You, Mr. Putin

Ivor Greymantle March 7, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having the opposite effect of what Mr. Putin had intended. From reinvigorating NATO to rallying Western democracies to the cause of freedom, we have one man to thank. Take a bow, Vladimir!

Ukraine’s Place in the U.S.-Russia Relationship

Ivor Greymantle February 14, 2022

Here’s a hint: Forget about letting Ukraine into NATO.

The ‘Radicalized Base’ Problem

Ivor Greymantle January 24, 2022

Radicalized voters are the biggest obstacle to a return to a more ‘normal’ politics, as their fringe beliefs, once mainstreamed, limit elected leaders’ room for maneuver.

Our Big Prediction for 2022: The World Won’t End

Ivor Greymantle December 30, 2021

People have been saying that the end is nigh for 2000 years now.

The Pleasures of ‘Evil’

Ivor Greymantle December 13, 2021

‘Evil’ succeeds by walking the narrow line that separates the cultural sensibilities of ‘blue’ and ‘red’ America.

Twelve Predictions for the 2022 Mid-terms

Ivor Greymantle November 22, 2021

The 2021 off-year elections have concluded and already every Chicken Little in the US is clucking that the Democrats are in for a historic drubbing

Don’t Panic! The 2021 Off-Year Elections Explained

Ivor Greymantle November 8, 2021

The 2021 off-year elections are further proof that Americans are groping for a new political center.

Fear the ‘S-Word’, Part Two

Ivor Greymantle September 9, 2021

Secessionist movements and rhetoric are the ultimate ‘red flag’ for mounting U.S. political tensions.

Fear the S-Word, Part One

Ivor Greymantle May 30, 2021

If local secession movements have historically been a measure of America’s political temperature, than the recent proliferation of county level secession movements in six states is a worrisome sign.

Joe Biden’s Supply Chain Opportunity

Ivor Greymantle April 26, 2021

Recent supply chain disruptions present the Biden Administration with a golden opportunity to spur domestic manufacturing and create a U.S. industrial policy. Consider it Joe Biden’s supply chain opportunity.

Paranoid Entertainment: How Hollywood Set the Stage for QAnon

Ivor Greymantle April 4, 2021

Hollywood shouldn’t be let off the hook for treating government conspiracies as fodder for entertainment. A set of paranoid blockbuster hits in the 1990s laid the groundwork for today’s conspiratorial society.

The Capitol Insurrection and the Belfast Blues

Ivor Greymantle March 25, 2021

David French’s comparison of America to Northern Ireland is apt, but his GOP-as-Sinn Fein analogy casts the principal players backwards. Donald Trump isn’t America’s Gerry Adams. He’s America’s Ian Paisley.

No Stranger to Sorrow

Ivor Greymantle March 14, 2021

President Biden leaned into the nation’s sorrows in his first televised address by channeling the depths of his own grief.

‘Fight Club’s’ Malign Influence on Gens Y and Z

Ivor Greymantle March 1, 2021

David Fincher’s classic movie of male ennui has been an undercurrent and touchstone to recent political and social events.

Three Heartbeats Away

Ivor Greymantle February 14, 2021

The “Great Man” theory of History bites back.

Speak the Truth, Mike Pence

Ivor Greymantle January 31, 2021

Mr. Pence has an outsized role to play in popping the helium balloon of misinformation. He must tell what he knows.

Why the Far Right’s Failure to Show is Bad News

Ivor Greymantle January 24, 2021

The far right’s refusal to tango on January 20 only delays the inevitable reckoning.

Bring Back the Presidential Press Conference

Ivor Greymantle January 21, 2021

President Biden should consider taking a page from The Gipper’s book.

Who Knew What — and When?

Ivor Greymantle January 15, 2021

A small circle of close advisors in all likelihood holds the key to several mysteries pertaining to January 6.

It’s Time for a U.S. Industrial Policy

Ivor Greymantle December 6, 2020

The time has come for a decisive break with free market fundamentalism in the interests of U.S. social cohesion. Ignoring lesson #1 of the Trump years risks even greater turmoil.