This Dog Is Barking, Part 1: Forecasting the 2026 Midterm Elections – The Battle for Congress

This Dog Is Barking

When we reviewed Trump 2.0’s first year in office in January 2026, we concluded that Trump was attempting to follow the Orban model of “illiberal democracy” used in Hungary. But Trump had not yet shown an inclination to ‘federalize’ U.S. election administration, which we referred to as “the dog that hasn’t barked yet”. Well, this dog is barking. Since March, the Trump administration has taken direct actions to influence the 2026 midterms in Trump’s favor. Greymantle believes these attempts will fall short of the mark.

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