Geopolitics
Greymantle’s geopolitics coverage examines the forces reshaping the international order – from Iran’s military posture in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s war in Ukraine, to the long-running countdown to a China-Taiwan confrontation. Our analysis is centrist, non-partisan, and built around long-term forecasting rather than the daily news cycle.
The Chaos Magick President: Trump’s War on Reality
In November 2024, days before Donald Trump’s improbable return to power, I published an article on these pages titled "Lord of Illusions: Donald Trump as Master Magician". Trump's behavior, I alleged, bore a close resemblance to that of the infamous Aleister Crowley. The "Illusionist" that I described in 2024 has fully manifested himself as “the Chaos Magick President" of 2026. The stage tricks are gone; what remains is a raw, blasphemous attempt to overwrite the firmware of our shared reality.
What Does Humble Pie Taste Like? Why the Iranian Regime Defied My Forecast of Collapse
Back in March, I made a very bullish forecast that Iran's regime would collapse with 98% certainty for myriad reasons, the U.S.-Israeli attacks being the most proximate. But I was dead wrong. In this post, I analyze the gaps and mistakes made in my earlier forecast. What does humble pie taste like? Read on and I'll tell you.
No Good Options 2: Seizing the Strait Islands – For What End?
This article examines several possible U.S. military objectives in the Strait of Hormuz, including a seizure of Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island and the potential capture of other strategic islands controlling the Strait. Each option carries serious risks, uncertain strategic benefits, and the chance of triggering wider economic and military chaos across the Gulf region. Hence our title, "No Good Options 2". as we continue last week's analysis.
No Good Options: Prospects for a U.S. Ground Invasion of Iran
Alexander Stavropoulos
There are inevitable trade-offs to be considered in every operational plan and in every war. The troubling fact about a potential U.S. invasion of Iran's coastline is that the trade-offs all seem to skew sharply negative after the initial landing has been achieved. For American military planners, there may truly be no good options for operationalizing a U.S. invasion of Iran.
A Clarification to Our Last Post: 10 Reasons Why Iran’s Regime Will Fall
We argued in last Saturday's post that Iran’s Islamic regime faces imminent collapse. Some readers have pushed back -- fair enough. Predictions about regime collapse should always be treated with skepticism. But the situation unfolding in Iran right now is unusually bleak for the ruling clerical establishment. The regime is far more fragile than many observers realize. In this post, we outline 10 reasons why Iran's regime will fall.
Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You: The Endgame for Iran Is Here
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched what is now unmistakably a war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The initial wave of airstrikes, cyber operations, and follow-on attacks were not symbolic gestures or calibrated signals meant to restore “deterrence.” They were systematic blows against Iran’s military infrastructure, missile forces, and the remaining skeleton of its nuclear program.
Letter to Xi: ‘Don’t Do It’
Following his recent high-level purge of the Chinese military, President Xi Jinping is riding high and apparently in full control of the PRC. But the risks of his obsession with reclaiming Taiwan for China are immense. Contributor and naval analyst Richard Jupa makes one last attempt to dissuade the Chinese leader in this 'Letter to Xi'.
Shaping the Mantle: A Direct Appeal to Greymantle Readers
Over the past 18 months, Greymantle’s Politics and Culture has grown into something more significant than we originally imagined, thanks to your engagement. As we scope out the next 18 months of our editorial calendar, we’ve been looking closely at the data. We want to know if the numbers tell the same story that you would. Today, we'd like to ask for your help in Shaping the Mantle -- so to speak.
Dead Man Walking: Vladimir Putin’s September of Setbacks
Vladimir Putin once sold himself as the master strategist who rebuilt Russia. In September 2025, the mask slipped. His armies stalled, his economy cracked, NATO didn’t blink, and Donald Trump called him a “paper tiger.” Dead Man Walking; Vladimir Putin's September of Setbacks traces the month the myth began to die
Iran’s Venezuelan Lifeline: Weapons, Drugs and Intel – Courtesy of Caracas
Iran’s June 2025 war with Israel and two years of Israeli dueling with its proxy network have left Iran’s defensive capabilities and internal situation severely compromised. The Iranian regime’s prospects for survival run through Caracas. Venezuela supplies Tehran with drugs-for-cash pipelines, gold swaps, drone hubs, and safehouses for regime members. This post explores why Venezuela is the indispensable backstop for the battered Iranian regime. Hence our title, "Iran's Venezuelan Lifeline".
Hamas’s Last Stand? Five Factors Supporting an Israeli Victory in Gaza
Hamas clearly miscalculated. Two years into the Gaza War, Israel has fought harder, longer, and wider than Hamas ever imagined. Rockets spent, tunnels exposed, allies struck, and political campaigns abroad failing — Hamas is weaker than at any time in its history. Israel may achieve the one outcome few believed possible: a decisive military victory. But even a crushing battlefield defeat is unlikely to end Hamas as an idea. This week's post is: "Hamas's Last Stand? Five Factors Supporting an Israeli Victory'.
The Dragon versus the Hedgehog: Can China Conquer Taiwan? An Interview with Richard Jupa
Recently, Greymantle's editor-in-chief sat down with contributor Richard Jupa, lead writer of our multipart 'China-Taiwan' series, to talk about tensions in the Taiwan Straits and how China might approach taking back the island nation that it regards as a renegade province. A transcript of our interview constitutes this week's post, which we are calling: "The Dragon versus The Hedgehog".
The Gaza War Revisited: A Contest of Wills, a Crisis of Humanity
The Gaza War remains trapped in strategic limbo, haunted by two unanswerable questions: Can Hamas survive and still claim victory, even if that victory results in the starvation of their own people? Can Israel win and retain a semblance of humanity? In this new post, “The Gaza War Revisited”, Greymantle explores how both sides have become prisoners of their own ideologies—unable to retreat, yet unable to prevail.
Putin Under Pressure: Why An Armistice May Not Be Enough to Save Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been adept at navigating crises both foreign and domestic, but Russia’s three-year war against Ukraine and its domestic fallout are testing his ability to manage Russia’s internal factions like never before. The difference between prior periods of internal unrest and Putin's present challenges lie in the pain felt by ordinary Russians and the multiple sources of pressure weighing on the Kremlin's elite factions, all of which Putin must manage.
Sir James Goldsmith: Populism’s Unlikely Prophet
Sir James Goldsmith was many things: a financier, a corporate raider, a political agitator, and—perhaps most importantly—a thinker ahead of his time. In the 1970s and 1980s, he made a name for himself as a bold and often ruthless investor, orchestrating high-profile takeovers and amassing a fortune in the process. But by the 1990s, Goldsmith had shifted his focus away from wealth accumulation to something he saw as far more consequential: warning of the dangers of globalization and a coming populist revolt.
Columbia’s Student Radicals, 1968 vs. 2024: Will the Protests Matter This Time?
Student radicalism at Columbia University has a storied history going back to 1968, when a massive student uprising shut down the college. Despite the media frenzy connected with today's student radicals, the 2024 protests were smaller and far less disruptive than those of 1968. But given a broader and more committed core of student activists this time, could the longer-term effects potentially be greater?
Why We Write This Blog, Part 1
In today's post, we veer sharply away from the geopolitical to delve, if ever so briefly, into the deeply personal. Why we write this blog is a tale of a lifelong obsession with forecasts and predictions. Having been eerily correct in foreseeing several critical events, when almost no one else did, convinced us that transforming our forecasting obsession into regular, public exercise was worth a shot.
Bibi’s Michael Corleone Moment
Despite being under investigation for corruption and leading a government engaged in an existential war for Israel's survival, Benjamin Netanyahu has never held a stronger hand in his 30-plus years in politics. Israel's military campaign has featured a relentless series of targeted assassinations, resembling Michael Corleone’s methodical settling of scores in the The Godfather saga. The collapse of Syria's autocratic government strengthens Bibi's hand even further. This is truly Bibi's Michael Corleone moment.
Not What Sakharov Predicted: The Strange Convergence of the World’s Great Powers
In 1968, Soviet dissident and world renowned physicist Andrei Sakharov advocated for a gradual convergence of the US and Soviet economies, and an end to the Cold War. His essay became widely known as the 'convergence essay'. What has happened in the years that followed is much stranger: a growing convergence of US and Russian political technologies and styles that Sakharov would have found most ominous.
The Gaza War: An Elemental Contest of Wills
The Israeli-Hamas War now entering its seventh week is quickly evolving into human warfare reduced to its most primordial: an elemental contest of wills between two combatants, in which only one can claim victory and the other is likely to perish.
The Darkest Hour is Just Before the Dawn
A quarter century of national disasters and global upheaval has both the U.S. and the wider world on edge. The prevailing mood is a kind of fatalism, lately made worse by the Israel-Hamas conflict. It might behoove us to take a step back to acknowledge that not all recent trends have been bad. The forces of darkness (e.g. Putin's crew, the Iranian regime) have lately suffered some setbacks of their own. It's way too early for fatalism.
January 2023 Update: More Breaks in the Clouds
Thanks to a mild northern hemisphere winter, natural gas and other fuel prices have dropped significantly, particularly in Europe, and a spike in European social unrest feared by many last autumn has failed to materialize, with the UK being a notable exception.
2022 in Review: Annus Horribilis, Annus Mirabilis.
2022 will go down in history as a major turning point in world events. 2022 in Review: Annus Horribilis, Annus Mirabilis.
Never So Happy to Be Wrong
Russia decided not to nuke Ukraine last month. Thank God! We have never been so happy to be wrong about one of our forecasts.
2022: Five Vindications, Five Predictions
The biggest and scariest event of 2022 is about to happen: the use of a battlefield nuke by Russia.
That Old Irish Temper
Biden's history of making misstatements comes back to haunt him.
This Situation Isn’t Sustainable
NATO's arming of Ukraine can only be a short-term expedient. Within months or even weeks, NATO must pivot to a more sustainable strategy.
Fool of the Hour
Last week. Senator Lindsey Graham essentially shouted "fire" in a crowded nuclear theatre. Let's hope Vladimir Putin wasn't listening.
Thank You, Mr. Putin
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is having the opposite effect of what Mr. Putin had intended. From reinvigorating NATO to rallying Western democracies to the cause of freedom, we have one man to thank. Take a bow, Vladimir!
Ukraine’s Place in the U.S.-Russia Relationship
Here's a hint: Forget about letting Ukraine into NATO.
Joe Biden’s Supply Chain Opportunity
Recent supply chain disruptions present the Biden Administration with a golden opportunity to spur domestic manufacturing and create a U.S. industrial policy. Consider it Joe Biden's supply chain opportunity.
Three Heartbeats Away
The "Great Man" theory of History bites back.
It’s Time for a U.S. Industrial Policy
The time has come for a decisive break with free market fundamentalism in the interests of U.S. social cohesion. Ignoring lesson #1 of the Trump years risks even greater turmoil.