Dear President Xi Jinping:
General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party; President of the People’s Republic of China; Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC); and Commander‑in‑Chief of the People’s Liberation Army
Although we haven’t met (and are unlikely to do so), I have been giving a lot of thought to the riskiest decision facing you in the years ahead. Hence, I am taking the highly unusual step of writing you this first letter of our acquaintance, which I am titling my ‘Letter to Xi’.
Of course, by riskiest decision I am referring to a takeover of that wayward province of yours…ummm, Taiwan, the one a bit offshore to the southeast that annoyingly insists that it is an actual nation-state.
You must be rather pleased at the cavalier way the current U.S. administration has abandoned its pesky moral high ground. You know, the one about respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of weaker countries.
Even more delightful is the puzzling emphasis that it has put on reasserting the U.S. sphere of influence in America’s own backyard: the Caribbean and Latin America. The Donroe Doctrine!!! I can almost hear your chuckles. The latest U.S. National Security manifesto barely mentions the Western Pacific — your neck of the woods – at all.
And unlike any previous U.S. president, the current occupant of the White House seems perfectly willing to discuss the big weapons deal ($11 billion) he has just made with Taipei when you two meet in April. Maybe he’ll slow down the delivery of those weapons in exchange for trade concessions.
Convinced that you are his pal, Mr.Trump also seems to have swallowed your assurances that you would never, ever attack Taiwan while he is in office (wink, wink).
It would therefore appear rather doubtful that your old friend will put at risk the U.S. Seventh Fleet and U.S. regional military infrastructure in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, not to mention thousands of American lives.
All that potential sacrifice…just to go to bat for a country that perhaps only a third of his voters can locate on a globe?
A Thorny Problem
But, as mentioned, I have been studying this issue closely over the last year.
Even if the U.S. wimps out (thus ensuring the neutrality of its regional allies), the costs of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be staggering. The repercussions are stunning. The unknowable knock-off effects of your potential invasion are unmeasurable…but, in all likelihood, would appear to be mostly negative.
And always to be kept in mind, PRC direct aggression could trigger any number of awful things (e.g. sabotage, at the very least) that could cripple the super-fab Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which China — and everybody else — still depend on for really advanced chips.
I don’t have to tell you that if the world economy starts skidding, it’s easy to predict where the fingers will be pointing.
My advice: You are doing just fine right now. Don’t push it. Keep threatening everything short of war to keep the boys in Taipei and Washington on edge.
While they’re distracted with your warlike razzle-dazzle, go for a longer game — one with far fewer downsides. Maybe consider snatching some of Siberia when Putin falters, or knocking over some neutral Pacific islands with that impressive amphibious capability you have been working on.
Ease up a bit on the Taiwan thing.
I know all about the rush you feel when you start shouting out “National Rejuvenation” and “The Hundred Years of Humiliation.”
Sure, those cries for boundary restoration are a sure way to gin up Chinese patriotism. Realistically, though, actual physical control isn’t necessary if Beijing becomes, in essence, Taiwan’s shadow capital, like it is for Hong Kong.
What does it hurt to let a lackey Taipei think it is still a sovereign entity?
You Have So Much Already Going For You
Let me also remind you of your many successes and advantages. These are considerable, especially if you let yourself be content to eventually tame Taiwan to a lapdog level.
Only two days went by last year without some type of intense ‘Grey Zone” near-warfare directed at the so-called Republic of China (ROC). Constant naval drills, blockade exercises, coast guard harassments, airspace violations — too many to count! Very wearing on the island’s overworked defenses, as intended.
Fewer nations recognize ROC’s sovereignty every year. Your spies, influencers, and expensively-bought sympathizers teem like stray cats in its cities.
Taiwan’s oldest political party – the Kuomintang – continually pushes for ‘more cooperation with China’. Lai Ching-te, the ROC’s current president, is struggling mightily to motivate his complacent population to forcefully resist a future incursion by the PRC (though he did succeed in raising Taiwan’s official defense budget to a whopping…3% of GDP).
What I am saying is: just be patient. Look at the wins that you have been racking up lately.
Moreover, you have already been quite successful in your state-driven, long-term innovation strategy.
I had my doubts when you grandly announced your own “Made in China” Project 2025 back in 2015. But, by George, you pretty much pulled it off. You were giving America the finger, and we just snorted in disdain.
Yet China has now put the U.S. on the back foot in several technical areas.
What comes to mind immediately is your robotics strides. Of course, you have also managed to launch the largest (by numbers, anyway) Navy in the world, but that took a little more time. About 25 years, actually. Still, it’s nothing to sneeze at.
Given the current retro-vision of our government, we Americans are losing years of productive industrial policy-making before we can catch up. Plus, you were clearly winning the chaotic tariff (now illegal) war with the United States.
We Yankees have been feeling gloomy about our competition with China lately. Journalists have been returning from visits and then writing articles in the NYT like “In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant.” (NYT Opinion, May 19, 2025 by Kyle Chan}.
Uneasy Lies The Head…
But some apologies are in order. I have not been taking your personal concerns seriously enough.
Like any aging (but gracefully so, in your case) autocrat, you are not satisfied with less than complete control. And of course, you have to constantly look over your shoulder.
However, I am not the only analyst puzzled by your latest high-level purge.
You have been steadily whittling down the Central Military Commission’s (CMC) membership for a few years now, but the latest removals seem surprising.
Dismissing your usual “corruption” accusations (not that there isn’t lots of it in the PRC’s military), these two generalissimos are unlikely to have committed that particular sin. At first, there were even some coup rumors. Once again, unlikely. Inter-factional infighting at the top? Maybe.
Far be it from me to criticize your decision-making. It is natural enough that you would always be a bit suspicious of the armed services and the men who run them.
But maybe General Zhang was telling his good friend (i.e. you) over and over something that old pal did not want to hear. I got this idea from a letter made public (and quickly suppressed) soon after charges were announced. The letter was purportedly written by General Zhang himself, but was probably composed by friends familiar with the general’s thinking.
This missive declares innocence, of course, but “Zhang” also writes that his personal relations with you had been souring because he stubbornly objected to any for-real Taiwan gambit. Observers interested in pursuing possible arguments for why China won’t invade Taiwan (they hope!) read the letter with great interest.
Now, General Zhang knew full well that you ordered the PLAN to be capable of reunifying the island with the mainland by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the creation of the PRC’s armed forces.
A lot of Western military analysts and elected leaders are convinced that 2027 is the deadline for an actual take-over or invasion rather than a symbolic milestone for modernization.
About Those Sci-Fi Weapons
I am not a betting man, but I would gladly bet that the purge was really about modernization. Those greybeards didn’t really comprehend the new dimensions of war.
You’ve been promising your nation a “world class” military. Moreover, you have been promoting lots of hi-tech wonder weapons to pull ahead of the Americans.
That awesome parade in Beijing last September showcased all manner of newfangled killing technology: hypersonic glide weapons, as well as swarms of drones that can fight in the air, under the sea, and over the land. To watch that parade was to witness Chinese naval strategy explained with pure hardware.
Don’t let me forget the plethora of clever missiles, shiny new jets, and whiz-bang armored vehicles. I think there were even some mobile laser thingamajigs. We won’t even bother mentioning the chilling nuclear devices on display.
Even if all this military gimmickry isn’t ready to field, I know you are committed to its development. You hope to blunt the United States’ response with it. Just as important, you want mitigate politically ruinous casualties among armed forces staffed mostly by only-sons. Never mind the PLA Navy’s Taiwan invasion risks!
My bet is that you will place members of a younger officer corps, mostly ‘techno-crats’, in the two CMS seats just vacated. They will understand all this modern wizardry better than the two veteran fogies ever could.
Even better. You now have two fall guys to blame. You know — just as well as they did — that the PLAN won’t be completely ready to tackle the take-over of the “Republic of China” in 2027.
This latest purge should help mightily when you nominate yourself for a fourth term as Party Chairman in 2027. No one will be overhearing any top military men muttering under their breath about your rash judgment or inability to absorb disagreeable advice.
Time Is On Your Side
Like I have been saying, Xi, you are on a roll already. Don’t risk everything on a single throw of reunification dice. The longer strategic ambiguity drags on, the likelier it becomes that Taiwan will drift closer and closer into your de-facto control.
I’ll take the liberty of reminding you of Sun Tzu’s famous saying from The Art of War: “Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”
Just keep up all the “Grey Zone” tomfoolery and make sure everyone’s nerves stay vibrating. Don’t let them realize that you are actually the post-modern exemplar of that infamous Chinese strategic patience. You conquer slowly, subtly, unlike some other superpower leaders.
The Taiwanese Political Muddle
In 2028, Taiwan has another election cycle.
The current president, Lai Ching-te, and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have long been pushing for greater independence and stronger defenses. Very irritating, right?
But more than balancing his voting percentage (40%) have been the pro-Beijing factions: the Kuomintang, or KMT (33-35%), and the Taiwan People’s Party (25%). After the presidential election, they united to form a working majority in the legislature, which regularly blocks Lai’s attempts to bolster the military, emphasize independence, etc.
With these parties and the many businesses that favor more commerce with the mainland, there could well be enough votes to push out Lai Ching-te and his party in 2028. You would then have a much more compliant government willing to restart semi‑official talks, tourism, and economic agreements under some version of the “1992 Consensus,” or a similar formula.
You might even choose to ease some of that Grey Zone and economic harassment to encourage fantasies of Beijing’s benevolence.
Letter to Xi: Am I Too Late?
But you may think a friendlier leadership in Taipei just means weakened resolve. And Donald Trump would still be in office, showing even less interest in propping up your lost province. You have openly announced, “No one can stop China’s ‘reunification’ with Taiwan.”
And you still have that “Man of Destiny” glint in your eye.
So, despite all of my well-reasoned arguments, I am afraid that I haven’t convinced you, Xi. Have my carefully chosen words been for nought?
You just won’t let this Taiwan obsession go, will you? In fact, you are probably already mulling over the idea that 2028 would be the perfect time to accomplish what no Communist Party leader ever could…even Mao.
Well, there is at least one thing you won’t have to worry about anytime soon.
Unlike Generals Zhang and Liu, those younger, with-it technocrats aren’t going to point out any glitches in your glistening, complex, can’t-fail war plans.
Don’t say I never warned you, Comrade.
Be Best,
Richard Jupa
