Forecasts
Greymantle treats forecasting as a core editorial function. We publish annual geopolitical forecasts, election predictions, and scenario analyses – and we stand behind them publicly. Our forecasts are on the record, revisited openly, and grounded in the same non-partisan analytical framework that drives all of our coverage.
Recent forecasts: 2026 Calculus of Fear – Iran Regime Collapse – 2024 US Election – 2025 Year in Review
Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You: The Endgame for Iran Is Here
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched what is now unmistakably a war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The initial wave of airstrikes, cyber operations, and follow-on attacks were not symbolic gestures or calibrated signals meant to restore “deterrence.” They were systematic blows against Iran’s military infrastructure, missile forces, and the remaining skeleton of its nuclear program.
Greymantle’s 2026 Forecast: Calculus of Fear
Our forecast for 2026 is a gloomy one. We title it ‘Calculus of Fear’ because our baseline view is that the coming year will be defined by the cold calculations of several key actors whose intention will be to intimidate strategic antagonists and domestic opponents alike, rewrite global norms, defy multilateral institutions, and carve the world up into spheres of influence.
2025 Year in Review: Shades of Grey
Twelve months ago, Greymantle published a 2025 outlook that attempted to map a world drifting toward instability, illusion, and overconfidence. Some of those calls landed squarely on target. Others missed. A few arrived in that territory analysts prefer not to linger in—the grey zone, where you are directionally right, tactically wrong, and forced to explain yourself. This year-in-review does exactly that.
2024 Year-in-Review: Ten Out of Twelve Ain’t Bad
At the start of 2024, Greymantle made 12 major predictions for the year. Ten of them turned out to be correct, an 83% success rate. The really interesting outcomes are the two we got wrong: the reelection of Donald Trump, and Bibi Netanyahu's ability to beat all odds.