Geopolitics
Greymantle’s geopolitics coverage examines the forces reshaping the international order – from Iran’s military posture in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s war in Ukraine, to the long-running countdown to a China-Taiwan confrontation. Our analysis is non-partisan, generally centrist, and built around long-term forecasting rather than the daily news cycle. As a group independent analysts, we write from outside the ‘think tank-industrial complex’.
No Good Options 2: Seizing the Strait Islands – For What End?
This article examines several possible U.S. military objectives in the Strait of Hormuz, including a seizure of Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island and the potential capture of other strategic islands controlling the Strait. Each option carries serious risks, uncertain strategic benefits, and the chance of triggering wider economic and military chaos across the Gulf region. Hence our title, "No Good Options 2". as we continue last week's analysis.
No Good Options: Prospects for a U.S. Ground Invasion of Iran
Alexander Stavropoulos
There are inevitable trade-offs to be considered in every operational plan and in every war. The troubling fact about a potential U.S. invasion of Iran's coastline is that the trade-offs all seem to skew sharply negative after the initial landing has been achieved. For American military planners, there may truly be no good options for operationalizing a U.S. invasion of Iran.
A Clarification to Our Last Post: 10 Reasons Why Iran’s Regime Will Fall
We argued in last Saturday's post that Iran’s Islamic regime faces imminent collapse. Some readers have pushed back -- fair enough. Predictions about regime collapse should always be treated with skepticism. But the situation unfolding in Iran right now is unusually bleak for the ruling clerical establishment. The regime is far more fragile than many observers realize. In this post, we outline 10 reasons why Iran's regime will fall.
Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You: The Endgame for Iran Is Here
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched what is now unmistakably a war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The initial wave of airstrikes, cyber operations, and follow-on attacks were not symbolic gestures or calibrated signals meant to restore “deterrence.” They were systematic blows against Iran’s military infrastructure, missile forces, and the remaining skeleton of its nuclear program.
Letter to Xi: ‘Don’t Do It’
Following his recent high-level purge of the Chinese military, President Xi Jinping is riding high and apparently in full control of the PRC. But the risks of his obsession with reclaiming Taiwan for China are immense. Contributor and naval analyst Richard Jupa makes one last attempt to dissuade the Chinese leader in this 'Letter to Xi'.
Dead Man Walking: Vladimir Putin’s September of Setbacks
Vladimir Putin once sold himself as the master strategist who rebuilt Russia. In September 2025, the mask slipped. His armies stalled, his economy cracked, NATO didn’t blink, and Donald Trump called him a “paper tiger.” Dead Man Walking; Vladimir Putin's September of Setbacks traces the month the myth began to die
Hamas’s Last Stand? Five Factors Supporting an Israeli Victory in Gaza
Hamas clearly miscalculated. Two years into the Gaza War, Israel has fought harder, longer, and wider than Hamas ever imagined. Rockets spent, tunnels exposed, allies struck, and political campaigns abroad failing — Hamas is weaker than at any time in its history. Israel may achieve the one outcome few believed possible: a decisive military victory. But even a crushing battlefield defeat is unlikely to end Hamas as an idea. This week's post is: "Hamas's Last Stand? Five Factors Supporting an Israeli Victory'.
Putin Under Pressure: Why An Armistice May Not Be Enough to Save Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been adept at navigating crises both foreign and domestic, but Russia’s three-year war against Ukraine and its domestic fallout are testing his ability to manage Russia’s internal factions like never before. The difference between prior periods of internal unrest and Putin's present challenges lie in the pain felt by ordinary Russians and the multiple sources of pressure weighing on the Kremlin's elite factions, all of which Putin must manage.
Bibi’s Michael Corleone Moment
Despite being under investigation for corruption and leading a government engaged in an existential war for Israel's survival, Benjamin Netanyahu has never held a stronger hand in his 30-plus years in politics. Israel's military campaign has featured a relentless series of targeted assassinations, resembling Michael Corleone’s methodical settling of scores in the The Godfather saga. The collapse of Syria's autocratic government strengthens Bibi's hand even further. This is truly Bibi's Michael Corleone moment.