US Politics
Greymantle’s US Politics coverage takes a centrist, non-partisan view of American political life. We cover elections, party realignment, third-party movements, and the structural pressures on American democracy – with a forecasting function that puts our predictions on the record. When our forecasts are wrong, our first response it to see what we can learn from our bad calls.
The Method to Their Madness: Trump, Rubio and America’s Lightning Wars
The geostrategic thinking of President Trump's inner circle revolves around a stark premise: the U.S. is entering a period of geopolitical rivalry that will culminate in a military confrontation with China. Since that confrontation is coming quickly, Washington cannot afford to remain entangled in a half-dozen smaller regional conflicts. Their solution is brutally simple: Before the larger struggle begins, the U.S. should neutralize as many secondary adversaries as possible.
Trump 2.0 One Year In. What Have We Learned?
When Greymantle published its Dec. 2024 forecast for Trump 2.0, we sketched three broad trajectories or pathways that Trump 2.0 could take, with Pathway Two being the Orban model. A full year into Donald Trump's second term as President, the gravitational pull toward Pathway Two - the illiberal consolidation of power through institutional redesign and policy overreach - is unmistakable.
8 Takeaways from the Democrats ‘Very Good Night’
U.S. Democratic Party candidates had what pundits rightly described as 'a very good night' on November 4, racking up major electoral victories in NJ, VA, NYC and elsewhere. In this post, we provide a high-level analysis of eight key factors that bolstered Democratic fortunes in the off-year elections including continued cost of living pressures and growing concerns about H.R. 1 linked Medicaid cuts scheduled for January.
No More Mr. Nice Guy: Three Possible Paths for a Second Trump Administration
In sketching out the three possible paths the incoming Trump administration could take, we must focus first on the incoming president himself. We believe Trump's attitude toward the highest office has changed. It's going to be a case of 'No More Mr. Nice Guy: three possible paths for a second Trump administration'.
Lord of Illusions: Donald Trump as Master Magician
In this fourth and final post covering the four major-party candidates for President and VP in the 2024 U.S. election, we are going to frame Donald Trump's candidacy in an unusual way: as the performance of a master magician. A magician, in the sense that Trump resembles, more than anything else, an extraordinarily effective stage or ceremonial magician.
American Conservatism is Dead
It's official. American conservatism is as dead as a coffin nail. One of America's two major political parties now lacks a governing philosophy. What killed conservatism? It wasn't Donald Trump. It was fear.
The ‘Radicalized Base’ Problem
Radicalized voters are the biggest obstacle to a return to a more 'normal' politics, as their fringe beliefs, once mainstreamed, limit elected leaders' room for maneuver.
Fear the ‘S-Word’, Part Two
Secessionist movements and rhetoric are the ultimate 'red flag' for mounting U.S. political tensions.
Fear the S-Word, Part One
If local secession movements have historically been a measure of America's political temperature, than the recent proliferation of county level secession movements in six states is a worrisome sign.